| Affected by the resource curse,resource-based cities often face thorny problems,such as: single industrial structure,slow economic development,and low innovation ability.To address problems,the State Council,the national development,Reform Commission,the Ministry of industry and information technology,along with other related departments have issued several documents,for instance: the national sustainable development plan for resource-based cities(2013-2020),the implementation opinions on supporting the industrial transformation and upgrading of old industrial cities and resource-based cities,and the measures for the administration of industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration areas of old industrial cities and resource-based cities.These files indicate the low innovation ability of resource-based cities,and the insufficient development of alternative industries.China should increase innovation investment,and cultivate innovative talents.Also,the country should highlight innovation of state system and mechanism,along with the technological innovation.The improving of transformation ability from science and technology to economy and real productivity is also significant.However,under the attack of complex social and environmental problems,to promote the benign interaction between the innovation subjects of resource-based cities and the innovation environment;and improve the sustainable innovation ability of resource-based cities is an urgent problem to be solved in front of 262 resource-based cities in China.The orderly construction and benign operation of innovation ecosystem is significant for promoting the co-evolution of innovation subject and innovation environment.This paper takes resource-based city innovation ecosystem as the main research object.Through the research on evolution and prediction of the system,this paper explores the growth context,existing loopholes and expected situation of the system.Also,the paper analyzes the specific problems,puts forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the system.In addition,this research provide theoretical support,guidance for promoting the healthy growth of the system,and scientifically planning the sustainable innovation road of resource-based cities.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)By studying the evolution process,evolution trend,evolution characteristics and dynamic mechanism of resource-based city innovation ecosystem,more comprehensive understanding of the evolution mechanism of the system can be defined.Using the patent data of China patent announcement of the State Intellectual Property Office,patnethub database,incopat database,patsnap database and other relevant databases.By using UCINET software,this paper summarizes and analyzes the evolution of the innovation ecosystem of 8 prefecture level resource-based cities,such as Tangshan,Baiyin and Zigong.Along with 8 county-level resource-based cities,such as Laiyuan County,Huayuan County and Qinglong Manchu Autonomous County.Research has found that the evolution of resource-based city innovation ecosystem can be roughly divided into formation period,growth period,maturity period,decline period and regeneration period.There are may be some differences in the length and distribution of each development stage in different systems.This difference is particularly significant in the decline period and regeneration period.With the evolution of the system,the number of innovation species and the function of innovation community in the system show a fluctuating upward trend.The connection and diversity of innovation species are increasing day by day.The proportion of enterprises in innovation species shows an upward trend,and the proportion of individuals in innovation species shows a downward trend.The evolution of the resource-based city innovation ecosystem has the characteristics of self-organization,fission,synergy and spatial heterogeneity as a whole.At the same time,at each stage of the system evolution,it has certain phased characteristics at the levels of innovation species diversity,innovation community size and inter-specific relationship.The evolution of the resource-based city innovation ecosystem is the result of the joint action of internal and external forces.The dynamic mechanisms to promote the system evolution mainly include technology pulling mechanism,market driving mechanism,policy driving mechanism and environment driving mechanism.(2)Evaluating the health of resource-based city innovation ecosystems.An evaluation index system composed of two subsystems,seven key factors and 28 specific indicators is constructed.Based on the strengthened RSR rank sum ratio method,the health of 30 resource-based city innovation ecosystems in various regions,development stages and resource types is evaluated.The study found that from 2015 to 2019,most sample systems were in sub-health,unhealthy or even morbid,and the health of different types of systems showed different characteristics.According to the type of resources,the average health of the innovation ecosystem of oil-based cities remains ahead in the whole process(the first echelon);There is a certain gap between the average health of the innovation ecosystem of comprehensive cities and oil-based cities(the second echelon);The average health of the innovation ecosystem of coal based cities is close to the metallurgical cities,and there is a certain gap between them.The innovation ecosystem of comprehensive cities,which is located in the third echelon.According to the development stage,the average health of sample systems in the regeneration period remains ahead in the whole process(the first echelon).There is a certain gap between the average health of sample systems in the growth period,maturity period,recession period,and sample systems in the regeneration period(the second echelon).According to the geographical distribution,the average health of sample systems in the East,central and northeast is relatively close(the first echelon);There is a certain gap between the average health of sample systems in the West and sample systems in the East,central and Northeast(the second echelon).(3)The health of resource-based city innovation ecosystems are predicted.Based on Grey prediction method and exponential smoothing method,this paper constructs the prediction model of resource-based city innovation ecosystems,and forecasts the expected situation of 30 sample systems in the next 10 periods(2020-2029).The study found that from 2020 to 2029,the health of 30 sample systems continued the development trend from 2015 to 2019,showing an upward trend on the whole.However,the health gap and arrangement of innovation ecosystems in different types of resource cities have changed.According to the types of resources,the gap between the average health of the innovation ecosystem of oil,comprehensive,coal and metallurgical resource-based cities is gradually decreasing.The average health of the innovation ecosystem of oil resource-based cities is surpassed by the innovation ecosystem of comprehensive resource-based cities around 2025.In the long term,the diversified industrial structure has a positive impact on the healthy growth of the resource-based city innovation ecosystems.According to the development stage,with the passage of time,the gap between the average health of the resource-based city innovation ecosystems in the growth period,recession period and regeneration period is becoming closer and closer.The average health of the innovation ecosystem of mature resource-based cities increases relatively slowly,which may reflect the changes in the development stage of resource-based cities.According to the geographical distribution,the average health of the resource-based city innovation ecosystems in the East and central China continues to remain in the first tier,and the average health of the resource-based city innovation ecosystems in the Northeast falls into the second tier,which is surpassed by the resource-based city innovation ecosystems in the west around 2028.(4)In view of the problems found in the evolution,evaluation and prediction,combined with the actual situation of resource-based cities and resource-based city innovation ecosystems in China,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the resource-based city innovation ecosystem.From 1989 to2029,the innovation function of the resource-based city innovation ecosystems in China showed an upward trend on the whole,and the innovation group grew stronger at sunset.However,the problems of poor innovation environment,loose inter-specific connection and low innovation output still exist for a long time.It is necessary to optimize the system by improving the innovation environment,cultivating innovation species,optimizing innovation investment and deeply cultivating innovation output.In this process,we should take patent information,research data and national policies as the guidance,and improve the pertinence and feasibility of optimization countermeasures through the comprehensive application of "sharing mode","Paris Agreement mode" and "precision innovation support mode",so as to promote the healthy growth of resource-based city innovation ecosystems.There are 53 figures,49 tables and 298 references in this paper. |
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