The Impact Of Foreign Trade On The Energy Efficiency Convergence Of Countries Along The "Belt And Road Initiative"

In 2013,China initiated its Silk Road Economic Belt and 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative,i.e.,Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),to strengthen economic prosperity and regional cooperation.One main aim of BRI construction is to improve physical connectivity for trade and investment along the Silk Road land route and Silk Road sea route.Large-scale infrastructure construction,including railway,road,bridge,and port,could consume a tremendous amount of resource,and result in a large amount of carbon emissions and put enormous pressure on the local and global environment quality.Furthermore,most of BRI countries are lower-middle-income economies,which have an extensive economic growth pattern at a much higher cost to the environment and resources.In general,BRI countries’ energy input is obviously higher and energy efficiency is lower.Their energy consumption,carbon emissions per unit GDP are 50% more than the global average.It is believed that the environmental challenge can be met by increasing energy efficiency.Although all countries share the goal of improving energy efficiency,the energy efficiency has great difference.If the backward BRI countries catch up with those leaders in the premise of overall decline in energy intensity,the energy intensity gap between the backward and leading BRI countries narrows,i.e.,there is energy efficiency convergence.As the main channel of technology transfer,spillover and diffusion,trade may improve the energy efficiency and narrow the gap of energy efficiency of BRI countries when it promotes the economic growth.In the background,this dissertation explores the evolution of energy efficiency and its convergence,as well as the impact of trade on energy efficiency convergence.This has importantly theoretical and practical significance on improving the general energy efficiency,narrowing energy efficiency gap of BRI countries,and promoting green BRI countries.This paper firstly combines the neoclassical growth theory and the theory of trade on environment quality to elaborate the mechanism of trade on energy efficiency convergence,and analyzes the current situation of energy efficiency and trade in BRI countries.Then,this dissertation investigates whether the total-factor energy efficiency in BRI countries is converged,and whether it converged to 15 developed EU countries,as well as the heterogeneous convergence rate in the condition of different energy efficiency growth rate,economic development level and geographic position.Next,this dissertation empirically analyzes the impacts of trade on energy efficiency convergence in BRI countries from the views of total export,total import,and the heterogeneity.Finally,this dissertation explores how the trade scale effect,trade technology spillover effect and trade composite effect between China and BRI countries affect energy efficiency convergence,and provides corresponding policy implications.The issues are studies:Firstly,the DEA model is employed to measure the total-factor energy efficiency of BRI countries,and its convergence is analyzed.The results show that,the total-factor energy efficiency in EU-15 are the highest,followed by Middle East and West Asia,Southeast Asia,Central and Eastern Europe,South Asia,Russia-Mongolia-China,and Central Asia.In terms of time,the total-factor energy efficiency in BRI regions experience an general increasing trend except the influence by global finance crisis in 2009.There exist β condition convergence of total-factor energy efficiency in BRI countries,and it is converged to the EU-15.Secondly,panel quantile regression is used to explore the heterogeneous total-factor energy efficiency convergence in BRI countries in condition of different energy efficiency growth rate,economic development level and geographic position.The findings are,when the energy efficiency growth rate is greater,BRI countries’ total-factor energy efficiency is converged and converged to EU-15.With the increase of energy efficiency growth rate,the convergence rate is increasing.Moreover,the total-factor energy efficiency in high-income BRI countries converges at a faster rate than that of low-income BRI countries when the total-factor energy efficiency growth rate is greater.Furthermore,the total-factor energy efficiency convergence rate in Eastern Europe and West Asia countries is faster than Central and Eastern Asia countries.Thirdly,the interaction regression and panel threshold model are adopted to examine the effect of BRI countries’ trade on energy efficiency convergence and analyzes the heterogeneity of energy efficiency convergence under different economic level,urbanization rate and economic structure.The results show that,on the whole,the export and import trade of the BRI countries do not significantly accelerate the convergence process of total-factor energy efficiency.In terms of different levels of economic development,the export and import trade of BRI countries with higher levels of economic development can accelerate the convergence rate of total-factor energy efficiency.In terms of different levels of urbanization,export and import trade adversely decrease the convergence of energy efficiency in the more urbanized BRI countries.In terms of economic structure,export and import trade accelerate the convergence of energy efficiency in BRI countries where the industrial value added is relatively large.Fourthly,the panel smooth transition regression is used to empirically test the impact of trade scale,technology spillover and composite effect between China and BRI countries on energy efficiency convergence.The results show that,the expansion of China-BRI trade scale will help the less energy-efficient BRI countries catch up with the more energy-efficient BRI countries and narrow the energy efficiency gap between the backward and the frontier countries.The China-BRI trade technology spillover effect helps the energy intensity to converge.The high-technology spillover effect is more effective than the low-technology spillover effect in promoting convergence of energy intensity in the BRI countries,moreover,the technology spillover effect of China-BRI trade is more effective than the trade scale effect in promoting convergence of energy intensity.The composite effect of China-BRI trade are not significantly detrimental to the convergence of energy intensity.Fifthly,the panel smooth transition model is employed to investigate the heterogeneity and time-varying trend of energy efficiency convergence rate with China-BRI trade.It is found that,for individual BRI countries and regions,the difference in convergence rate of energy intensity depends to a large extent on the China-BRI trade scale and the spillover effect.For BRI countries and regions whose trade scale and trade technology spillovers exceed the thresholds,their energy intensity is faster to catch up with the frontier energy-efficient BRI countries and regions.For BRI countries and regions that are expanding their trade with China and importing technology-intensive products,the convergence rate of energy intensity is increasing over time.In addition,on the basis of the above conclusions,it is found that the energy efficiency of the BRI countries shows the trend of convergence,and the convergence speed is faster when the energy efficiency growth rate is larger.The technology spillover effect of import and export trade in the BRI countries does not significantly accelerate the convergence rate of energy efficiency,but the effect shows significant heterogeneity in the BRI countries with different economic levels,urbanization and economic structure.The trade between the BRI countries and China can accelerate the convergence of energy efficiency in terms of trade scale effect and technology spillover effect,and the convergence of energy efficiency of the BRI countries with closer trade ties with China shows a faster trend.Finally,this dissertation puts forward some policy suggestions from the overall BRI and the BRI regional level.From the overall BRI level,it is needed to further develop the economy with high quality to increase the energy efficiency growth rate,and strengthen trade with China,enhance trade facilitation level,as well as increase the scale and proportion of advanced technology intensive manufactured goods imported from China,and reduce the concentration of energy intensive products imported from a single country.From the BRI region level,China,Mongolia and Russia and Central Asia need to improve their advanced technology level and gradually transform their economic development mode to enhance their energy efficiency.The high income BRI countries and the Middle East and West Asia countries should strive to achieve technological breakthroughs and further enhance the scope of energy efficiency.The BRI countries with high level of economic development should expand their import and export trade scale,while the BRI countries with low level of economic development should improve their ability to learn and absorb foreign technologies;the BRI countries with high level of urbanization should gradually transform their economic structure and enhance their ability to absorb technology spillovers;the BRI countries without exceeding the trade scale and technology spillover thresholds should strengthen their trade with China.