Research On The Impact Of The Free Trade Agreements Of Countries Along The "The Belt And Road" On Energy Trade Risks

Energy is an important material basis to ensure the sustainable development of economy and society.The energy trade between countries is simply reflected in the cross-border exchange of factors,which ensures the normal operation of national economic systems in a deep sense.Considering the special status of energy,countries adopt various trade strategies to join the international energy trade market,and the game disputes in international energy trade are prominent.With the change of trade form,various trade problems urgently need to be solved by countries participating in free trade agreements.In order to understand the actual impact of free trade agreements on energy trade risks,this paper calculates the direct risks of energy trade among countries and the indirect risks suffered by countries participating in energy trade based on relevant indicators,finally establishes an econometric model to empirically study the relationship between the free trade agreements of countries along the "the Belt and Road" and their energy trade risks.The direct risk results of energy trade show that the energy trade risk level of countries along the "the Belt and Road" from 2005 to 2019 is relatively stable,and the overall risk level of natural gas trade is the lowest.Among them,Russia,Kazakhstan and other countries have rich oil reserves and frequent foreign contacts,which are at the core of the oil trade risk network,Russia and China are at the core of the coal trade risk network,while Qatar is at the core of the natural gas trade risk network.The indirect risk calculation shows that Singapore,Thailand and other important oil transportation transit places are greatly impacted by the energy trade risk between other countries.Central and Eastern European countries such as Bosnia an d Herzegovina and Slovenia are greatly affected by the indirect risk of coal,while western and central and Eastern European countries such as Slovenia and Thailand are more affected by the indirect risk of natural gas trade;The risk level of China’s dire ct energy trade has decreased year by year,and the indirect risk impact has also stabilized at a low level.Introducing economic development level,population size,geographical distance,religious culture,official language and other indicators as contr ol variables,this paper empirically studies the impact of free trade agreements between countries along the "the Belt and Road" on their energy trade risks.The results show that participating in free trade agreements can significantly reduce the level of energy trade risks,among which the risk level of oil trade decreases the most,followed by the risk level of coal trade.The basic conclusion is still valid through the robustness test by replacing variables and double difference propensity score matchin g.