| China has pledged to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 in its nationally determined contributions.As such,carbon reduction is the fundamental path towards achieving the "peak carbon" goal and an inevitable choice for countries to respond to global climate change and establish a shared future for humanity.Cities are one of the areas most affected by human activities and generate the most concentrated energy consumption and carbon emissions.Urban construction land is not only the material basis and spatial carrier for urban formation and development but also the largest "carbon source" land type.Therefore,promoting carbon reduction in urban construction land is a key lever for low-carbon urban development and implementing the "peak carbon" strategy.Furthermore,as the "peak carbon" process advances,the flow of new and old kinetic energy factors such as people,goods,funds,and information link the carbon emissions from urban construction land into an organic system.Achieving the goal of "peak carbon" for urban construction land requires a systematic analysis of the interaction among various factors related to carbon emissions in urban construction land,rather than merely considering land factors allocation.Therefore,coordinating the relationship between the economic and social development environment and carbon reduction in urban construction land in a high-quality and efficient manner,and promoting the "peak carbon" strategy quickly and effectively is a significant issue currently faced by all levels of government in China.As a major central city in Central China,Wuhan plays a significant role in the strategic deployment of optimizing China’s development spatial pattern in the new era.It is not only a metropolitan area for high-quality development but also a leading demonstration zone for ecological civilization construction.In line with the national "carbon peak" work,Wuhan is expected to take the lead in this area.To this end,this article draws on existing literature and systematically examines the theoretical connotation and logical relationship of carbon emission reduction from urban construction land under the context of the "carbon peak" strategy era,with Wuhan as the research object.Historical data of carbon emissions from urban construction land in Wuhan from 2006 to 2020 are analyzed,and the driving factors of carbon emissions are explored using the LMDI model.Furthermore,a system dynamics model is constructed to simulate and predict the carbon emissions from urban construction land in Wuhan in 2030,taking into account social development,economic development,energy consumption,ecological environment,and government policies.Finally,by setting different policy adjustment scenarios,the evolution path of the carbon emission system from urban construction land is explored,and effective pathways for carbon emission reduction and control of urban construction land are sought.The research findings provide action guidance for solidly promoting the "carbon peak" strategy implementation in Wuhan and even the country.They contribute to achieving carbon emission reduction from urban construction land and high-quality development of cities.The main research results are as follows.(1)Between 2006 and 2020,Wuhan City’s urban construction land experienced a restrained growth in net carbon emissions,weakened carbon emission capacity,and enhanced carbon absorption capacity.This has facilitated the persistent promotion of "carbon reduction and carbon sink" capability.The net carbon emissions from urban construction land displayed an oscillating upward trend,increasing from 25.56823 million tons to 27.35693 million tons,with an average annual growth rate of 0.48%.Since 2008,urban construction land has demonstrated a significant increase in carbon absorption capacity,maintaining a level of 64,000 tons of carbon per year.Wuhan City’s water system is well-developed,with urban water bodies serving as the primary source of carbon sinks.In terms of urban construction land’s carbon emission capacity,energy consumption accounted for an average of 78.94%,followed by carbon dioxide produced by human metabolism,and lastly,carbon dioxide emissions from waste.(2)The effects of urban construction land use and energy use efficiency can effectively mitigate carbon emissions.However,population size,economic development,and construction land intensity contribute to carbon emission escalation.To explore the pathway to reducing carbon emissions in urban construction land,it is necessary to optimize construction land use and energy use efficiency,while also controlling the effects of population size,economic development,and construction land intensity.The LMDI model was used to scrutinize the effects of different influencing factors on carbon emission reduction in urban construction land.It showed that construction land use efficiency and energy use efficiency exhibited a driving effect with contribution rates of 37.16% and 62.84%,respectively.In contrast,the effects of population size,economic development,and construction land intensity showed a restraining effect with contribution rates of 11.13%,51.84%,and 37.03%,respectively.(3)The urban construction land carbon emissions system dynamics model of Wuhan city comprises five subsystems,including social development,economic development,energy consumption,ecological environment,and government policies.The model has been effectively tested and can stably simulate real-world data.The simulation results show that from 2006 to 2030,the carbon emissions from urban construction land in Wuhan city will continue to increase at a slow pace.The carbon emissions in 2020 are 28.9086 million tons and are predicted to increase to 31.4966 million tons by 2030,with an average annual growth rate of 0.86%.From the perspective of energy consumption structure,the energy consumption structure will gradually shift from coal to natural gas as the main energy source,gradually reducing coal consumption.Looking at urban development indicators,the urban construction land scale,population size,and economic level of Wuhan city will continue to grow and reach 713,137 hectares,24.2633 million people,and CNY 5.4071 trillion,respectively,indicating that Wuhan is a city with great development potential.(4)By regulating economic growth rate,industrial policy,technology policy,land policy,financial policy,tax policy,and combination policy,different scenarios were constructed to simulate the system dynamics model.The results show that under the scenario of high-speed economic development,carbon emissions will continue to rise.The carbon reduction effect of actively expanding financial policy and low-carbon land policy is most significant,followed by active technology policy,high-speed development tax policy,and advanced optimization of industrial structure,all of which can reduce carbon emissions to varying degrees.Under the premise of ensuring highspeed economic development,the combination of policies can further reduce carbon emissions,reducing them by 10.1839 million tons and achieving the peak of carbon emissions from urban construction land in 2024.(5)Based on the factor decomposition results,system dynamics simulation results,and simulation results under different scenarios,the optimization paths and strategies for carbon reduction in urban construction land in Wuhan city can be summarized as follows: promoting low-carbon transformation of the economy and promoting industrial structure upgrading;improving the mechanism for technological innovation and increasing energy efficiency;deepening the concept of low-carbon development and reconstructing national spatial planning;and building a carbon finance center and optimizing the tax system. |
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