Analysis Of The Process Of Carbon Emissions Peaking In China And OECD Countries

Global warming has become the biggest threat to humanity today.The greenhouse gas,such as carbon dioxide,is mainly derived from the fossil energy consumption of industrialization.Many developed countries,such as the United Kingdom and the United States,have completed industrialization and urbanization,achieving peak in total carbon emissions.China and the other developing countries are still undergoing industrialization and urbanization,becoming the main drivers of current greenhouse gas emissions.As the largest developing country,China actively assumes responsibility for emission reduction and promises to achieve peak carbon emissions in 2030.Therefore,exploring the laws and influencing factors in the carbon emission peaking is of great significance to China’s carbon emissions peak in 2030.Taking the process of OECD carbon emission peaking as the analysis object,this study attempts to explore the law of carbon emission peaking.According to the peak of carbon intensity,per capita carbon emission and total carbon emission,the peak process of carbon emission is divided into four stages,and the correctness of the stage division of carbon emission is verified by the data of OECD countries.The industrial structure and urbanization level corresponding to the peak of OECD carbon emissions are examined.Most carbon emissions peak countries have completed the industrialization process and entered the later stage of urbanization.This study examines the impact of industrialization,urbanization and other factors on carbon emissions.There is a positive relationship between the proportion of industry and carbon emissions,and an "inverted U" relationship between population urbanization and carbon emissions.The decline in energy intensity has a major inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.The carbon reduction effect of clean energy is relatively limited.Trade has helped to reduce carbon emissions in OECD countries.According to China’s carbon emission and industrialization and urbanization stage,the driving force between China and typical OECD countries is analyzed.China is in a transitional phase between carbon intensity peak and per capita carbon emissions peak.Compared with the same stage of Denmark,Ireland,economic growth is the main driving force,Denmark and Irel urbanization effect is lower than China.Foreign trade helped ease pressure on Denmark to cut emissions,but increased carbon emissions in China and Ireland.Compared with the United States and Japan,which have completed industrialization and urbanization,it is found that economic growth is the main driving force for the growth of carbon emissions.China’s urbanization plays a greater role in promoting carbon emissions than the United States and Japan..Foreign trade plays a role in restraining carbon emissions in the United States and Japan.Based on the historical trend of carbon intensity decline and the target of Chinese government,the future carbon emission in China is predicted.At the rate of decline in American,french and Japanese,China will not peak around 2030.According to the historical trend of China’s carbon intensity decline,China can achieve the peak of total carbon emissions in 2030,and the peak of per capita carbon emissions is lower than the average level of OECD countries.China’s carbon emissions will peak by 2030 if the annual decline rate of carbon intensity will be 3.44% or more.