Carbon Emission Measurement From Dual Perspectives And Emission Reduction Path Optimization Under Multi-Objectives

Climate change is a common challenge faced by all human societies,and combating it is a global common but differentiated responsibility.In the context of economic globalization,differences in factor endowments and comparative advantages of different countries have triggered an extensive international division of labour and cross-border trade,creating huge economic gains for many countries.However,at the same time,the transfer of the commodity production process has also led to the simultaneous transfer of pollution emissions("carbon leakage"),and some countries or regions have become the concentration of pollution emissions due to relatively lax environmental regulatory rules,with non-negligible negative impacts on local ecosystems and the health of residents.Under the traditional producer-responsible emission reduction model,these countries not only take on a large amount of carbon transfers from trading partners,but also bear heavier pressure to reduce emissions.From the global level,due to the existence of the phenomenon of "carbon leakage",the effect of emission reduction policies is bound to be weakened to a certain extent,although those countries or regions with relatively stringent environmental regulations have realized a decline in carbon emissions,but the overall global carbon emissions have not been effectively controlled,and may even be increased.This situation requires us to rethink the perspective of emission reduction targets and responsibility measurement indicators,which cannot be limited to the production side or the perspective of a single country.China is in an important strategic opportunity period,with rapid economic development,gradual social transformation,and environmental problems becoming more and more prominent,and realizing sustainable development of economy,society and environment is the most important task now.At the same time,as the world’s largest net exporter of carbon emissions,the huge trade carbon deficit also has a serious negative impact on the country.In such a diverse and complex context,China is facing the dual pressure of emissions reduction and development,and setting a single emissions reduction target or focusing only on economic growth is far from enough.Based on the aforementioned context,this paper was conducted from four aspects:Firstly,a theoretical scrutiny concerning the multi-objective coordination and optimisation of carbon emissions was executed.Chapter 2 systematically reviewed classical theories exploring the nexus between carbon emissions and macroeconomics.Various forms of emission reduction targets were meticulously assessed in both theory and practice.The necessity for multi-objective coordination and optimisation in emission reduction was elucidated,and a triad of principles for such coordination was introduced.These principles advocate for a balanced focus on both the production and consumption sides,a comprehensive control over both the intensity and the total amount of emissions,and an evaluation of the emissions in relation to their developmental stage.Based on this theoretical scaffolding,a rudimentary framework for harmonising and enhancing multiple objectives in carbon emissions was proposed.It was emphasized that a synergistic reduction of emissions from both the production and consumption realms is essential.This involves minimising self-sufficient emissions to reduce the carbon deficit,fortifying the regulation of exported emissions,and restructuring the composition of imported emissions.Furthermore,the principles of shared responsibility and efficiency prioritisation were integrated into the development of national or industrial emissionreduction objectives.On a separate note,the importance of establishing milestones and adaptive strategies was highlighted.Priority was accorded to economic development in the initial phase,with the implementation of an emission control system anchored on intensity control and supplemented by total volume control.As economic structures mature and low-carbon technologies advance,a subsequent system centred on total volume control and bolstered by intensity control was advised,thereby ensuring the comprehensive and sustainable development across economic,social,and environmental facets.Secondly,an exhaustive assessment and international comparison of China’s carbon emissions were performed in Chapter 3,utilising the world input-output table spanning from 1990 to 2021.A comprehensive examination of carbon emissions was conducted from dual perspectives—production and consumption.The findings reveal that China’s carbon emissions exhibit characteristics such as high total volume,elevated intensity,industrial bias,more exports than imports,low per capita levels,and low cumulative volume.When compared with developed nations,ample room exists for accommodating per capita development needs and responsible emission reductions.In addition,key pathways for emission reductions were identified as suitable for China at this juncture:firstly,technological advancement that necessitates an upgrade in production modes through carbon emission intensity controls;and secondly,structural shifts compelled by emission reduction policies to optimize and adjust both industrial and trade frameworks.Thirdly,the construction of a multi-objective coordinated optimization model for carbon emissions was undertaken in Chapter 4.Built on the concepts of steady-state equilibrium and objective planning methods,the model was developed to illustrate the relationship between carbon emissions and economic activities.This was achieved through a series of linear or non-linear equations,which included the quantification of primary carbon emission indicators and the detailing of carbon emission generation and transfer processes.Moreover,the model elucidated the internal operational mechanisms of the economic system,thereby offering a comprehensive portrayal of the relationship between carbon emissions and various sectors and dimensions within the economic system.The impact pathways of emission reduction or economic growth targets on crucial variables of both carbon emissions and the economic system were also depicted.The model facilitated the simulation and optimization of emission reduction paths under multi-objective shocks,as well as the analysis of the impacts of different policy target shocks on emission reduction and economic performance.Compared to traditional macroeconomic global system models,such as computable general equilibrium models,this model possesses three distinct advantages: firstly,it adopts steady-state nature as the overarching objective,thereby allowing for a comprehensive,long-term assessment of the macroeconomic system;secondly,it employs a goal-planning approach that is flexible and accommodates both macro and micro considerations,linear and non-linear systems,and both stochastic and steady-state conditions;finally,the model uses an input-output table as its data base,thereby enabling a systematic examination of carbon emission generation and transfer,as well as source and destination structures.Fourthly,Chapter 5 employed the multi-objective coordinated optimization model of carbon emissions to simulate emission reduction paths under both single-objective and multi-objective scenarios.The empirical simulations provided insights into the interactions between the economy and carbon emissions and the changes in industrial and trade structures under different emission reduction targets.It was found that a single emission reduction target inadequately addresses the complexity of the issue.A national emission reduction strategy that incorporates multi-objective coordination offers a more balanced approach,reconciling various factors such as production and consumption sides,total emission amount and intensity,and the trade-offs between emission reduction and economic growth.Such a strategy is shown to result in more comprehensive environmental,economic,and social benefits.In alignment with the foundational principles of multi-objective coordination and optimization of carbon emissions,the paper further proposes tailored emission reduction pathways that are applicable to different levels of emission reduction targets and stages of economic development.This not only deepens the academic discourse on the topic but also provides a robust theoretical and empirical basis for policy formulation and implementation.