Research On Carbon Emission Efficiency And Emission Reduction Path Of Construction Industry In All Provinces In China

The negative impact of the greenhouse effect and the deterioration of the ecological environment is increasingly aggravated,and the climate problem is showing great damage and irreversibility.Actively promoting energy conservation and emission reduction,and realizing sustainable and low-carbon development have become the main goals pursued by the economic development of all countries.As the world’s largest carbon emitter,China has always attached great importance to the issue of climate change and made an important commitment to global climate governance,namely the "3060" emission reduction target.As one of the main energy use industries in our country,the proportion of total carbon emissions in construction industry is at a high level and the overall trend of rising.It is of great significance to calculate and analyze the carbon emission and carbon emission efficiency,and study the realization path of carbon peak for emission reduction in the construction industry.Based on the different research methods,the paper makes an in-depth study on the carbon emission efficiency and the carbon peak path of the construction industry.Firstly,combined with the carbon emission coefficient method and input-output method,a comprehensive carbon emission measurement model is established,and the carbon emission of the whole country and the provincial construction industry is calculated,and its composition structure is analyzed.Secondly,from the angle of input and output,considering multi-index factors,the evaluation system of carbon emission efficiency in construction industry is established,at the same time,the paper uses the SBM model to calculate the carbon emission efficiency of provincial,regional and national construction industry,and analyzes its space-time evolution law.Then,the paper constructs the scenario index system of carbon emission development in construction industry,and establishes the scenario analysis model of carbon emission trend in construction industry by using Tent improved SSA-BP neural network algorithm and scenario analysis method,three scenarios of carbon emission development in construction industry were designed according to different carbon emission efficiency intervals,including baseline,low-carbon and enhanced scenarios.Finally,combined with the analysis results of carbon emission scenarios in construction industry,the paper puts forward the way to reduce carbon emission in construction industry.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1)According to the calculation results of the construction industry’s carbon emissions based on the comprehensive carbon emissions calculation model,there are obvious differences in carbon emissions among provinces,and related industries account for a large proportion of carbon emissions in the construction industry.2)considering the expected output of SBM models for the provinces domain construction carbon emissions calculation and analysis results showed that the efficiency of the whole on the time dimension and improve construction efficiency of carbon emissions,most provinces and cities and from the spatial dimension is obvious "east high,Midwest low" differences,but the difference in gradually to the "high in south,north west,northern low" transformation.3)The construction industry carbon emission scenario analysis model is used to predict the construction industry carbon peak time and carbon emissions under three scenarios.The results show that both the low-carbon and enhanced scenarios can help China’s construction industry achieve the target of reaching the peak in 2030,and the construction industry peak time can be advanced to 2027 under the enhanced scenario.4)path for future construction of emission reduction should be "flexible population policy,improving the quality of urbanization","stable economic growth,adhere to the market-oriented","to improve energy efficiency,speed up structural transformation","green development to strengthen environmental protection,the realization of" the four aspects,common power construction in our country carbon peak strategic target realization.