Research On Carbon Emission Systemsimulation And Emission Reduction Path Oftransportation Industry

In September 2020,China set the goal of "carbon peaking" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060,demonstrating its commitment as a major country.Transportation industry is a mainstay industry of economic and social development of our country,and is a typical high energy consumption and high emission industry.With the improvement of our transportation facilities,the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction in the transportation industry increases dramatically.On the one hand,transport industry carbon emissions have accounted for more than 10% of the national carbon emissions,carbon emissions are huge,on the other hand,our country is also vigorously promoting new energy transport vehicles,transport industry emission reduction potential is great,has become an important field of energy saving emission reduction.The transport industry is bound to undertake an important mission of emission reduction.Therefore,under the above background,it is self-evident that how to find out and clarify the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the transport industry and find out the effective path of energy conservation and emission reduction in the transport industry.In this paper,the carbon emission of the transportation industry is taken as the research object,and researches are carried out from three aspects: what are the influencing factors,why and how to influence the mechanism,and how to achieve carbon emission reduction in the transportation industry.Firstly,based on the current situation of energy consumption in the transportation industry,the top-down method is used to measure energy consumption and carbon emissions in the transportation industry.Secondly,from the five aspects of economy,society,transportation,technology and policy,the influencing factors of transport carbon emissions were identified,and the key influencing factors were optimized according to the relevant theories of carbon emissions and the principle of scientific and comprehensive selection.Thirdly,on the basis of the selected influencing factors,the system dynamics thought was used to construct the transport carbon emission system dynamics model.The influencing mechanism of transport carbon emission factors was analyzed qualitatively through causality,and the effectiveness of the influencing mechanism was analyzed quantitatively through the stock flow model,and the constructed model was tested.Finally,the scenario analysis method is used to simulate and analyze the different scenarios of the five subsystems of economy,society,transportation,technology and policy involved in the model,and the combination scenario analysis is used to set the benchmark path,the economic development path,the green development path and the coordinated development path for comparative analysis.At present,the coordinated development path is the most suitable development path for Chinese transport industry carbon emission reduction,and put forward the suggestions on transport industry carbon emission reduction.