Research On Emergency Capability Gaps Quantification Of Urban Earthquake Disaster

Earthquakes are highly destructive disasters.China is one of the countries with the highest number of strong earthquakes on the continent due to its unique geographical location and rich seismic zones.The increasing concentration of urban population and wealth as a result of accelerated urbanization has led to a rising risk of earthquake disasters.Effectively improving urban earthquake disaster emergency capability is a realistic and challenging task as a key concern for earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation.The demand for urban earthquake disaster emergency capability is positively correlating with the earthquake risk,that is,the higher the earthquake risk,the greater potential for damage,and the higher emergency capability required.Therefore,it is not only important to clarify the current capability,but also to grasp the capability gaps.Pinpointing emergency capability gaps is the key to accurately improving emergency capabilities and effectively responding to earthquake disasters.However,so far,there is no scientific and systematic analysis framework for urban emergency capability to identify and quantify capability gaps.Motivated by this fact,this paper propose an emergency capability analytical framework for urban earthquake disasters based on “scenario-task-capability”,which can be used to explore the quantification of capability gaps.Firstly,the scenario construction of earthquake disaster based on scenario elements was proposed.Earthquake disaster vulnerability was divided into three categories according to the source of vulnerability,and the manifestations of disasterbearing bodies were clarified.The magnitude,intensity,time,and weather were proposed as scenario elements to build a basic scenario for earthquake disasters.And based on the earthquake disaster processability mechanisms,the scenario development path was portrayed.It was proposed that earthquake scenarios are sequences of base scenarios and multiple impact scenarios in chronological order.The base scenario results in scenarios of building damage,lifeline damage,security facility damage,and utility damage,further leading to scenarios such as human casualties,lifeline functions disruption,supplies disruption,economic disruption,and public panic.Secondly,the earthquake scenario-based whole process of emergency tasks framework was constructed.In conjunction with the emergency management phase,the response and recovery tasks were decomposed into pre-emptive disposal,rescue and relief,social recovery,economic recovery,and psychological recovery based on impact scenarios.And the mitigation and preparedness tasks were decomposed into monitoring and early warning,vulnerability reduction,formulation of legislation and policies,development of emergency plans,and emergency support according to the routine emergency tasks and earthquake characteristics.Multiple subjects with their responsibilities and tasks were dissected.Then,the emergency tasks of the main government departments were clarified.Thirdly,the pathway for measuring emergency capability was designed.Based on emergency tasks,the key elements of earthquake emergency capability were analyzed and 43 primary indicators for measuring emergency capability were extracted.Then the primary indicators were optimized into 38 indicators by Delphi and a standardized index system for measuring emergency capability was established.Taking “capability target-current capability-capability gap” as a pathway for measuring emergency capability,the capability target of 38 standardized indicators was assigned according to relevant policies and regulations,disaster consequences,and expert scoring.A method of assessing the current capability using a combination of field research,expert scoring,and questionnaires was proposed.Then,the formula for calculating capability gaps was given.Finally,the targeted improvement strategies were proposed and the emergency capability analytical framework for urban earthquake disasters was applied in practice.Based on the analysis of the corresponding subjects of the capability elements,the“Trinity” strategy for improving the urban earthquake disaster emergency capability was constructed.The government should focus on the improvement of the informatization platform,plan,legal system,emergency support,and recovery model.The social organization should concentrate on complementing the lack of government in terms of manpower,material,and financial resources.The public should pay key attention to improving the ability to against earthquakes.The capability improvement strategy can provide directional guidance for putting forward specific countermeasures and suggestions in practice.Taking Jiaozuo as an example for empirical application.The results show the best performance in response capability and the worst performance in preparedness capability in Jiaozuo.Specifically,the quantitative value of the capability gaps was calculated.Then the targeted suggestions were made.The applicability and validity of the analytical framework were verified by the results of the empirical application.This paper explores the research of quantifying earthquake emergency capability gaps,which not only broadens the research perspective of earthquake disaster emergency capability evaluation,but also provides a clear direction and target for urban emergency capability construction,which is of great practical and guiding significance for promoting urban safety development through high-level coordination.There are 33 figures,42 tables,and 264 references.