| Agriculture is a pillar industry of the national economy,and its development is closely related to the stable development of the country.China’s per capita cultivated land area is low,and China’s population is huge.In order to meet the growing demand for agricultural products,it is essential to promote the realization of sustainable agricultural development.In 2022,the Ministry of Ecology and Environment thoroughly implemented the idea of ecological civilization and issued the “National Implementation Plan for Monitoring and Assessment of Agricultural Non point Source Pollution(2022-2025)”.It implements the important guiding spirit of “promoting the prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution in the spirit of nailing”,and guides each administrative region to formulate an implementation plan for monitoring and evaluating agricultural non-point source pollution from 2023 to 2025.This plan includes the construction of a monitoring network and pollution monitoring and evaluation system for planting non-point source pollution.In 2021,the No.1 central document clearly proposed to promote the green development of agriculture,which pointed out that we should continue to promote the reduction and efficiency increase of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,comprehensively implement the comprehensive utilization of straw and the recovery of agricultural film and pesticide packaging,strengthen the research and development and promotion of degradable agricultural film,support the construction of national agricultural green development pilot areas,and strengthen the supervision of agricultural product quality and food safety.It can be seen from the contents of the national programmatic documents that agricultural development is at an important stage of economic structure optimization and transformation,agricultural non-point source pollution control is at a critical stage,and China has entered the stage of “extensive” high-speed growth to “intensive” high-quality development.Planting is an important sector of agricultural production,it is the basis of national agricultural product supply and food safety,and it is also an important source of agricultural non-point source pollution.The sustainable agricultural production environment is a necessary condition to ensure the good and sustainable development of the planting industry.It is an important issue in agricultural development to pay attention to the relationship between the non-point source pollution of the planting industry and agricultural economic growth.At the same time,the No.1 central document in 2020 proposed that relying on existing resources to build agricultural and rural big data centers,accelerate the application of modern information technologies in the agricultural field,such as the Internet of things,big data,blockchain,artificial intelligence,the fifth generation mobile communication network,and smart weather.As a basic strategic resource for national development at this stage,big data can help industrial transformation and upgrading,and play an innovative regulatory role in the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution.To sum up,relying on the agricultural big data environment to carry out in-depth research on planting non-point source pollution is of great significance for ensuring stable growth of the agricultural economy and promoting the development of green modernization in agriculture.It is an important topic for ensuring balanced development of people’s needs and maintaining stable social development..This study follows the analytical logic of “raising questions-research basis-empirical analysis-policy analysis”,and relies on the agricultural big data environment to carry out spatial econometric analysis of planting non-point source pollution,study the ecological efficiency of the planting industry based on non-point source pollution and evolutionary game research on the participants of planting non-point source pollution,to explore the prevention and control policies of planting non-point source pollution.The raising questions part clarifies the current agricultural development trend,clarifies the important problems faced by agricultural development in the future,determines the research direction of this paper,and proposes the research problems to be solved in this paper by sorting out the policy documents issued by the state.At the same time,familiar with the current research status at home and abroad,define the concepts of “planting non-point source pollution” in this study,and elaborate on the main basic theories applied in this study,providing a certain practical basis and necessary theoretical support for the research of this article.The part of current situation carding systematically describes and analyzes the current situation of planting non-point source pollution and the development of agricultural economy,explains the importance of carrying out research on the relationship between planting non-point source pollution and agricultural economy,and provides data support for this study.The part of model construction and empirical analysis builds the estimation model of planting non-point source pollution emissions,and makes empirical analysis on the spatial characteristics of planting non-point source pollution emissions and the similarity of non-point source pollution emissions between provinces.The spatial econometric model of planting non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth is constructed,and empirically analyze the spatial spillover effects of planting non-point source pollution emissions.Establish the ecological efficiency measurement model of planting non-point source pollution,clearly understand the ecological efficiency level of planting non-point source pollution in various regions of China,and conduct empirical analysis to improve the ecological efficiency of planting non-point source pollution.The policy analysis part,based on the previous research,applies the game evolution theory to analyze the strategic selection relationship of the groups participating in the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution,and carries out policy simulation analysis to put forward policy recommendations suitable for the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution in the current.Compared with the existing research,the main innovation points of this study are as follows:First,in terms of research objects,few existing studies have focused solely on in-depth research focusing on planting non-point source pollution.This study takes this as the research object,determines the accounting method for the main pollution sources of planting non-point source pollution from the perspective of fertilizer application and solid waste accumulation in farmland,and improves the existing research on planting non-point source pollution.Secondly,in terms of research methods application,spatial econometric analysis is applied to the study of planting non-point source pollution,while objectively evaluating the development level of ecological efficiency of planting based on planting non-point source pollution.Thirdly,in terms of theoretical application,evolutionary game theory and system dynamics are used to study and analyze the strategic choice behavior of participants in the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution,so as to improve the theoretical logic of the formulation of policies for the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution.The following conclusions can be drawn from the study:(1)The overall non-point source pollution emissions of the planting industry are at a high emission stage.Through the estimation of planting non-point source pollution emissions and the analysis of the intensity of planting non-point source pollution sources and pollutants emissions,it is found that there is an obvious spatial clustering feature between provinces.(2)The spatial econometric analysis of planting non-point source pollution emissions and agricultural economic growth found that agricultural economic growth had a significant spatial spillover effect on planting non-point source pollution emissions.Among the influencing factors,agricultural economic growth,consumption capacity,technological progress,agricultural modernization level,risk perception,and industrial structure all had a significant spatial spillover effect on planting non-point source pollution emissions in adjacent areas.(3)Using a static method to measure the ecological efficiency of planting industry based on planting non-point source pollution,the results show that the overall ecological efficiency of the planting industry in China is at a medium to low level,with a large room for improvement.Environmental factors have a significant impact on the ecological efficiency of the planting industry in various regions.Applying dynamic methods to measure the ecological efficiency of planting industry based on planting non-point source pollution,the results showed that the changes in ecological efficiency and technical efficiency during the entire period were mainly manifested as a decrease,while technological progress was manifested as an improvement.The development status of ecological efficiency of planting industry based on planting non-point source pollution gradually improved from the northwest to the southwest.(4)A game evolution analysis was conducted on the selection of prevention and control strategies for planting non-point source pollution involving three groups of farmers,technological enterprises,and local governments.The results showed that government macroeconomic policy control measures can promote the realization of stable and balanced strategic points among the three parties,and achieve the best strategy selection for prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution.(5)Propose policy recommendations for achieving effective prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution from the perspective of policy design and policy applicability.Propose measures to promote the construction of pilot demonstration areas for the prevention and control of planting nonpoint source pollution,promote the construction of agricultural big data systems based on the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution,accelerate the implementation and transformation of scientific and technological achievements in the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution,and enhance the active role of participating entities in the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution.Through the above measures,we will assist in building a planting non-point source pollution system,and achieve balanced development between the prevention and control of planting non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth. |
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