| Since the late 1970 s,under the leadership of the Communist Party of China,China has rapidly integrated into the world trade system with backward productivity and extremely scarce material resources,but have learned extensively the world's leading science and technology.Thus,achieving self-sufficiency in consumer goods and continuously expanding the total volume of international trade.Nowadays,China is facing the fierce competition of international commodity market and the constraints of domestic resources and environment,the existing industry development model and productivity-driven model need to be changed urgently,and the economic structure and industry development are also facing deep adjustment and technological upgrading.In view of the current global economic recession that caused by industrial technology iteration,in September 2013,the new Chinese government launched the "One Belt,One Road" initiative to ease the downward pressure on the economy.It aims to promote development by opening up,actively transform the domestic economic development mode,and promote the optimization and manufacture of the domestic economic structure through deeper international industrial integration and technological spillover.The construction of "One Belt,One Road" will not only promote regional economic integration,but also provide a foundation for realizing the "China dream" in the new century.Meanwhile,due to the China's population structure and low urbanization rate that determine the domestic market is small,it must rely on opening to the outside world and expanding exports to achieve market clearance.The export-oriented economic model is very important for China's development.Export expansion plays an important role in stimulating China's economic growth.It is clear that China's export-oriented economic growth model will last at least until 2025.In the new-era of industrial revolution in the world,we need to set up a global vision and take a more proactive attitude towards the world.Whether the comprehensive open policy and the "one belt road" construction in the new era can help China's healthy economic development,promote the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry and cultivate endogenous economic growth remains to be testified.Therefore,testing the effectiveness of the deep economic opening policy confirms that the construction of "One Belt,One Road" helps to improve the mechanism behind the high-quality development of the domestic industry,which is of great practical significance and policy reference value for solving the problem of sustainable economic growth in China.This thesis studies the upgrading of China's manufacturing industries at the present stage,discusses the omnidirectional opening policy,and helps the upgrading of China's manufacturing industries by the transformation of industrial development with independent innovation,and further tests the international technological spillover effect caused by the "one belt and one way" construction,and explores the feasible path of technological upgrading of China's manufacturing industries under the background of "One Belt,One Road" construction.Firstly,by the analysis of the nature of production and the law of supply-demand equilibrium,the theoretical framework of industry production is established;the change of consumer preference and the rise of industrial land cost impel industry technology upgrading,the motivation of endogenous technological progress in industries is analyzed.Eventually,the following conclusions are drawn: changes in consumer preferences and the rise of land cost impel industries to increase their total factor productivity;The long-term productivity of all industries and enterprises will converge,and demand preferences and factor costs will force the low-tech manufacturing industry to upgrade to medium and high-tech industries.Furthermore,under the framework of endogenous economic growth,we further clarify the effects of opening policy and international industrial integration on accelerating technology spillover: Closed economies mainly rely on the two factors of per capita technological progress rate and per capita growth rate of intellectual capital to achieve endogenous economic growth.In contrast,open economies are conducive to capital circulation and technology dissemination,as a consequence,their technological progress is significantly faster than closed economies.Based on the demand theory and technology spillover effect,this paper summarizes that participating in fierce international market competition means that domestic enterprises must continuously improve their R&D capabilities to gain a place in the international market.While international market competition and industry cooperation make industry competition incandescent,it also accelerates the speed of new technology dissemination and leads to the continuous upgrading of domestic industry technology.Based on the theoretical framework and the assumption of industrial production constraints,this thesis constructs a driving model of industrial competitiveness,investigates the financial and export trade statistics of manufacturing industry in the most recent 18 years,and analyzes the main factors driving the development and upgrading of various industries.The purpose of this paper is to prove the transformation process of China's manufacturing industries through open trade,and to examine the path of an endogenous economic growth.Specific procedures: Based on the theory,this thesis observes and measures the benefits of free trade policy to the upgrading of manufacturing industries from different angles and sides.The empirical model is built on the basis of theory;the manufacturing industries' financial data are collected and matched with the export trade data;after the examination of the endogenous validity of the policy,the panel regression model accurately estimates the unit promotion effect of deep openness on the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industries.The research innovation lies in:(1)Appearing the factors of consumption upgrading and land cost from Cobb-Douglas production function,combining theory with practice,analyzing enterprises and industries in order to cater to consumer preferences,maintain profit space,long-term industry total factor productivity convergence,tapping the motivation of manufacturing upgrading,which enriches the theoretical framework of industrial development and endogenous economic growth;(2)Proving endogenous issue by verifying that international industrial convergence is conducive to technology spillover(3)Using technology content measurement method,considering from the perspective of industrial production processes,deducting the contribution of imported intermediaries,we can get the net output value of "local" and compare it with the total exports of the same industries in the world.Estimating the international export competitiveness and technological complexity of the manufacturing industry objectively reflects and describes the independent manufacturing capability and technological level of Chinese enterprises.(4)based on the existing literature research,we adopt the counterfactual test to control the endogenous problems,clarify the causal relationship between the research objects,and synthesize the technical complexity of the manufacturing industry in China without the "one belt and one road" initiative.To solve the research object: the construction of "One Belt,One Road",namely the omni-directional,deep economic opening policy and the endogenous problems between manufacturing industries,further confirms the effectiveness of the "One Belt,One Road" policy,and scientifically and accurately estimates the benefits of deep economic opening to China's manufacturing industries;(5)microcosmic inspection of the actual effect of Technology Spillovers from three paths of international trade,FDI and ODI,which path is more conducive to the establishment of independent R&D system in our country,and then promote the upgrading of industrial structure. |
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