| China has huge labor resources.By the end of 2017,China's population had reached1.39 billion,an increase of nearly 240 million compared with 1990,and an increase of nearly 850 million people compared with the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China,accounting for 19.4% of the world's total population.The abundant labor resources condense the huge demographic dividend,which makes China's labor-intensive products have obvious comparative advantages in international trade.To a certain extent,it makes up for China's congenital deficiency in capital and technology,and the products maintain a strong strength in international competition.It is undeniable that the realization of this comparative advantage requires a reasonable spatial distribution of labor resources.However,because of the late start of China's market economy,the allocation of labor resources more reflects the color of planned economy for a long time,and the price mechanism is obviously insufficient in the effective allocation of labor resources,which makes the allocation efficiency of labor resources seriously deviate from the Pareto standard,further aggravating the structural contradiction of China's labor market.Since the reform and opening up in 1978,the gradual establishment of the market economy system has made some institutional barriers restricting the flow of labor force gradually abolished,which has greatly released the enthusiasm of labor force flow.To some extent,the cross regional flow of labor resources has solved the long-term structural contradictions in China's labor market and promoted the development of regional economy.Data shows that since 2017,China's GDP has reached US $12143.49 billion,which has become the second largest economy after the United States.It is hailed as a miracle of economic growth.All these achievements are inseparable from the contribution of labor mobility to economic growth,Fan Shide(2014),a domestic scholar,calculated the "contribution rate" and "promotion rate" of labor mobility to economic growth from the perspective of factor input.The results show that the overall promotion rate of labor mobility to China's economy in2000-2005 and 2006-2011 is 0.84% and 0.12% respectively.In view of the profound connotation of the importance of labor mobility to regional economic development,it is undoubtedly practical to find out and analyze the relevant factors restricting labor mobility.So far,many scholars have studied the impact on labor mobility from the perspectives of wage difference,household registration system,human capital,social network and individual family characteristics,and have achieved some research results.But what these studies have in common is that they are based on the assumption of complete competition and constant returns to scale,which is obviously inconsistent with the reality.In the real world,the operation of economic system is more realized under the condition of monopoly competition and increasing returns to scale,which is especially obvious in urban economy.According to the relevant principles of spatial economics,urban economy is often the result of incomplete competition and increasing returns to scale.The market potential as one of the key variables to measure urban economic characteristics,What is the relationship between market potential and labor mobility?What mechanism does market potential influence labor mobility? Does market potential have a spatial effect on labor mobility? What are the main factors influencing the relationship between market potential and labor mobility? And the role of these factors in the process of market potential affecting labor mobility? At present,there are few systematic researches on these problems in China.Therefore,with doubts about the relevant issues,this paper explores the core concept of "market potential" in new economic geography and urban economics as a research perspective,and combines the existing data in China to make a more comprehensive analysis of the issue from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,Furthermore,this paper analyzes the path of market potential acting on labor mobility from four aspects: enterprise layout and agglomeration mechanism,wage premium mechanism,public service mechanism and employment mechanism,and tests the spatial effect and threshold effect between them by using spatial measurement and threshold regression,which undoubtedly has both theoretical and practical significance for deepening the Research of labor related issues Righteousness.The full text is divided into seven chapters,from the perspective of the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical test to examine the impact of market potential on labor mobility.The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic,and summarizes the relevant literature.Secondly,from the research method,research content,technical route to carry out a master plan for the paper.Finally,the paper introduces the innovation and shortcomings from the perspective of topic selection,data selection,statistics and measurement methods.The second chapter introduces the theoretical basis of the paper,on the basis of relevant theories,constructs the mathematical model of market potential acting on labor flow,and explores the mechanism of market potential affecting labor flow.The third chapter is the current situation analysis,using the relevant data from the perspective of descriptive statistics to investigate the regional distribution characteristics of market potential and labor mobility,which paves the way for the follow-up empirical analysis.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis,using the classical panel econometric model to examine the impact of market potential on labor mobility from the perspective of existence and heterogeneity,and to empirically test the theoretical mechanism proposed in the second chapter.The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis,mainly from the spatial perspective to investigate the spillover effect of market potential on labor mobility,and through the establishment of spatial Dubin model SDM,and the effect decomposition of regression parameters to test the size of the spillover effect.The sixth chapter is empirical analysis,using the threshold regression method,this paper analyzes the main factors affecting the relationship between market potential and labor mobility from both theoretical and empirical perspectives,and further investigates the threshold effect of market potential on labor mobility from the empirical perspective.The seventh chapter is the conclusion of the paper,which summarizes the whole paper,abstracts the main conclusions and policy implications of the article,and makes a prospect for further research.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,The paper uses the fixed effect model to analyze the relationship between market potential and labor mobility:(1)Market potential can effectively attract the inflow of labor force through four ways: enterprise layout selection and agglomeration mechanism,wage premium mechanism,public service mechanism and employment mechanism.(2)In general,the impact of market potential on labor mobility has an inverted "U" structure,When the market potential is lower than the critical value,there is a positive correlation between the market potential and the labor flow in a moderate range.On the contrary,when the market potential is higher than the critical value,there is a negative correlation between the market potential and the labor flow due to the "crowding effect".(3)From the perspective of the interaction effect of variables,the interaction coefficients of market potential with average wage and the interaction coefficients of market potential with price level are significantly positive,indicating that they have complementary effects on labor flow,thus verifying the "backward connection" and "forward connection" in new economic geography.(4)Considering the imbalance of regional economic development and the internal composition of market potential,the market potential in the eastern region has a significant role in promoting labor inflow,and is higher than the national average.Compared with the market potential of the first and second industries,the market potential of the third industry has an obvious effect on attracting labor inflow.(5)From the perspective of the structural characteristics of labor flow,the labor inflow outside the province and men is more sensitive to the change of market potential,while the labor inflow inside the province and women is less sensitive to market potential.(6)By comparing the relative proportion of the four channels in the process of market potential influencing labor mobility,market potential has the greatest impact on labor inflow through the choice of enterprise layout and agglomeration mechanism,with the proportion of 73%;the wage premium mechanism and employment mechanism take the second place,with the proportion of 24%and 6.1%;the public service mechanism is relatively small,with the proportion of 2.3%.Secondly,the relationship between market potential and labor mobility is examined from the spatial perspective,and the conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)market potential and labor mobility have significant spatial dependence characteristics,which are embodied in two agglomeration states of "high-high"(H-H)and "low-low "(L-L).(2)The potential of local market has a "Siphon effects" on the inflow scale of labor force in neighboring areas,which is manifested as "spatial competition".(3)From the decomposition of the effect,we find that the scale of labor inflow is more sensitive to the change of market potential in the eastern region,whether it is direct effect or indirect effect.Compared with the central and western regions,the spatial competition for labor resources in the eastern region is more intense.Thirdly,population size,spatial distance,market development,urban infrastructure and urbanization level are the main factors affecting the relationship between market potential and labor mobility.With the change of these related factors,the effect of market potential on labor flow will show a certain discontinuous threshold effect.Compared with the existing research,the marginal contribution of the paper is as follows:(1)From the perspective of the "forward connection" of new economic geography,the paper systematically investigates the impact of market potential on labor mobility,and analyzes the effective channel about the market potential affects the labor flow.from four aspects of enterprise layout selection and agglomeration mechanism,wage premium mechanism,public service mechanism and employment mechanism(2)Different from traditional research methods,this paper uses spatial measurement and panel threshold technology to examine the spatial and threshold effects of market potential on labor mobility.(3)Different from the previous research conclusions,this paper empirically concludes that the impact of market potential on labor mobility has an inverted "U" structure,which satisfies Williamson hypothesis and has certain crowding characteristics. |
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