Can Affordable Housing Promote Regional Population Mobility?

Population mobility is an important force in the process of industrialization and urbanization in China.Housing is a necessary condition for the integration of agricultural transfer population.Through the housing security policy to achieve the transfer of rural population to urban integration in order to improve the level of urbanization quality,this is the 2015 central economic work conference that China will strive to resolve the real estate inventory,to help rural residents to buy a house in the city.However,with the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the arrival of the aging society,the first question in front of the city is likely to be how to attract more people into the city.It is that The eighteenth session of the Fifth Plenary Session should actively respond to the overtones of unbalanced population structure.Housing is one of the most basic material life,due to the low income of the floating population,it is difficult to enter the city to buy commercial housing,however,indemnificatory housing has become an important weapon to solve the housing problem of floating population and can significantly reduce the cost of living in the city of floating population,thus increasing the attractiveness of the city to the floating population.So a large number of floating population into the city caused the supply of quasi public goods,such as housing,which may also provide an opportunity for the city to attract population inflow.However,under the existing household registration system and the urban bias policy,can the indemnificatory housing promote the flow of population?Based on this,under the background of the existing housing policy,based on the theory of supply and demand of housing market,this paper explores the mechanism of promoting population movement from the perspective of government investment and construction security housing in order to try to provide theoretical guidance for the region to improve the affordable housing policy and to formulate a reasonable policy of population flow control.Research on the problem of indemnificatory housing and population mobility,it can help to understand and grasp the law of population flow in the new urbanization situation in China.However,the theoretical discussion and empirical test on this issue are very rare.In this paper,the indemnificatory housing and population mobility are included into an analytical framework to analyze the impact mechanism of the indemnificatory housing on the population flow in detail.On the basis of theoretical analysis,then we collect the data of the population flow of the census and the financial data of the indemnificatory housing,and make an empirical study on the impact of the indemnificatory housing on the population flow.In the first place,this paper analyzes the influence factors and mechanism of population flows based on the traditional gravity model,and focuses on the analysis of the impact of the indemnificatory housing on inter-provincial population flows.The empirical results show that the indemnificatory housing has a significant impact on the population flow,but it needs to be emphasized here,based on Lesage(2015),this paper proposes a new method to explain the results of traditional gravity model estimation.This method has not been used in the study in order to use a new perspective to correct a common error in the interpretation of the meaning of variable coefficients in the study of gravity models.Then,a large number of existing literature consider that the population flow has a significant interaction in space.By using exploratory spatial data analysis,it is found that there is a significant correlation between the regional population movement in the space in China.Based on this,in order to verify the existence of space dependent effects,the direction and size of the impact of indemnificatory housing on population mobility,in this paper,we construct a spatial econometric interaction model to analyze the impact of affordable housing on population mobility,the model can also measure the direct effect and the spatial spillover effect.At the same time,the 31 provincial administrative units are divided into developed regions and general regions according to the geographical position,to carry out an empirical analysis of the partition domain.The study found:There is a significant correlation between the population flow in the adjacent geographical space.The indemnificatory housing not only promotes the inflow of population in the region,but also has a spatial spillover effect on other regions.If the spatial spillover effect is not considered,the effect of indemnificatory housing on the inflow of the population will be underestimated;from the regional point of view,the direct effect and the spatial spillover effect of the indemnificatory housing in the developed areas are larger than that in the general area,the general area is larger than the full sample data,however,these two effects are not significant in the general area.In order to further verify the robustness and reliability of the empirical results in this paper,we use the method of economic housing data and spatial Bayesian MCMC to test the robustness.It is found that the empirical results are robust.Finally,based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical research results,This paper considers:Firstly,regional competition,synergy and spillover effects of population mobility should be considered in the area of attracting population.For geographical adjacent areas,we should strengthen the coordination of population policy and social security policy,enlarge the regional cooperation effect;Secondly,each area not only need to increase indemnificatory housing construction area,but also to constantly improve the indemnificatory housing policy,need to increase the reform of the household registration system,expand the coverage of affordable housing,increase support efforts to reduce the burden on Enterprises,this is also the government's "supply side reform"of the proper meaning;Thirdly,Study on the direct effect and spatial spillover effect of the construction of indemnificatory housing to promote population flow on the basis of full consideration of spatial dependence,it has important practical significance to improve the protection of housing policy,thus to use the "housing for people" means to promote the region and even the whole of China's urbanization and industrialization process under the new situation.