Research On The Development Path Of Synergistic Emission Reduction Between CO₂ And Air Pollutants In China's Power Industry

Climate change and air pollution are two major challenges in the field of environment.Greenhouse gas and air pollutants emitted in the process of social development have caused unpredictable impacts on the atmospheric environment and climate conditions,which are being widely concerned all over the world.The rapid development of the industrialization process has forced China to confront the double pressure of greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.However,the coal-based energy consumption and production structure of China's power industry led to a large amount of CO₂ and air pollutants emissions in the production process,which have a huge impact on the ecological environment.CO₂ and air pollutants are homologous,their anthropogenic emissions all come from the combustion of fossil fuels.Therefore,the ways to control CO₂ and air pollutants are essentially consistent.Considering the emission reduction of CO₂ and air pollutants as a whole problem,and combining with energy endowment,economic development,environmental change,policy guidance and other external factors,the optimal combination of emission reduction measures is studied from the perspective of synergistic emission reduction,which can more effectively solve the control problem of CO₂ and air pollutants and reduce the mitigation cost dramatically.Therefore,for a rapidly developing country such as China,it is possible to coordinate and unify the emission reduction targets of CO₂ and air pollutants in the power industry.Through the effective combination of emission reduction measures,the emission reduction effect can be maximized with the least cost,so as to achieve the development goal of improving the ecological environment and reducing air pollution.This kind of prevention and control measure,integrated with synergistic emission reduction,is not only an urgent requirement for the development of China's power industry,but also shows the inevitable direction for the optimization and adjustment of the global power production system.In this dissertation,according to the actual development situation of China's power industry,an energy system optimization model for China's power industry was constructed,and the emission reduction technology list was established.The LMDI model of CO₂ and air pollutant emissions in power industry was constructed by using the Logarithmic Average Dirichlet Index Decomposition method,as well as the impact factors and driving effects of CO₂ and air pollutant emissions were analyzed respectively.The key factors of emissions were summarized,including economic scale,population scale,industrial structure,energy structure and energy intensity.The contribution rate of each impact factor was calculated to reveal the law of impact on emissions.According to the decomposition results of LMDI,the basic economic and social assumptions were set.Taking 2015 as the base year,four energy consumption scenarios with different constraints were set up.The energy consumption structure,power consumption demand and production composition of China's power industry from 2020-2050 were forecast and analysed.The emission characteristics,emission reduction potential of CO₂ and air pollutants were quantitatively analysed,and the obtained synergistic emission reduction effect and influencing factors were decomposed based on technical effect and structural effect.The cross-elasticity of synergistic emission reduction of CO₂ and air pollutants was analyzed,the synergistic emission reduction effect of three emission reduction scenarios was studied,as well as the cost-effectiveness of synergistic emission reduction was comprehensively evaluated.Finally,a development path to achieve the synergistic emission reduction of CO₂ and air pollutants in China's power industry was obtained.The main feature of this paper is to combine the emission reduction of CO₂ and several air pollutants into a unified consideration.Compared with the similar research at home and abroad,it is innovative in the following three aspects.(1)In terms of research methods,the energy system optimization model of China's power industry was constructed,and the synergistic emission reduction effect of energy saving and emission reduction technology was evaluated.(2)In terms of research ideas,the key influencing factors of CO₂ and air pollutant emissions were revealed,and the quantitative prediction system was established.(3)In terms of research results,the difference emission characteristics of CO₂ and air pollutants were obtained,and the role of structural optimization and technology upgrading in the synergistic emission reduction was revealed.The main results are as follows:(1)The main influencing factors of CO₂ and air pollutant emissions in China's power industry are economic scale,population scale,industrial structure,energy structure and energy intensity.Economic scale and population scale have positive effects on CO₂ emissions of China's power industry,while industrial structure,energy structure and energy intensity have negative effects.Moreover,these five factors have similar effects on air pollutant emissions.(2)With the continuous growth of installed capacity and generated energy of China's power industry in the future,production composition will also be diversified.The power consumption demand will show a year-on-year upward trend,and the power consumption composition of the terminal departments will also change significantly.The focus of power demand will gradually shift from industry to transportation and construction.(3)If the power system in China maintains its current policy in the future development,the energy conservation and emission reduction measures are not well-targeted or implemented with little effort,it will not be able to achieve its energy saving and emission reduction targets at each stage,which will put great pressure on China's energy supply and emissions control.(4)The power industry can introduce and maximize the application of optimal control technologies while optimizing the energy consumption structure to realize synergistic emission reduction for CO₂ and air pollutants in China's power industry while simultaneously saving energy.Under the COC scenario,the emissions of CO₂ and air pollutants will simultaneously peak in 2030.The corresponding cost of synergistic emission reduction will remain relatively low,while producing effects such as reduced energy consumption for production and prevention of the greenhouse effect.(5)The synergistic treatment of CO₂ and air pollutants is not only an urgent requirement for the low-carbon emission reduction development of China's power industry but also an inevitable direction for the optimization and adjustment of the global power production system.By optimizing the energy consumption structure,it is possible to achieve a better synergistic emission reduction effect between CO₂ and air pollutants;however,it is difficult to achieve efficient synergistic control between the two through the application of the best available pollutant control technology alone.(6)After CO₂ emissions peak in the power industry,the main way to reduce CO₂ emissions will be to optimize the structure and upgrade the technology for CO₂ self-governance;this means that adjustment of the energy structure will play an important role in the process of emissions reduction.For the reduction of air pollutants,the promotion effect is limited to only the implementation and promotion of structural emission reduction measures focused on non-fossil energy.(7)The synergistic emission reduction of CO₂ and air pollutants should be promoted from three aspects:strengthening pollution control and promoting energy-saving technology;promoting clean utilization and optimizing energy structure;adjusting power demand and strengthening policy support.In this way,the power generation technology and terminal removal technology will be optimized and upgraded,and new energy will be actively developed.Finally,it will promote the green development of China's power industry with low carbon and low pollution in an all-round and multi-level way.