Study On The Driving Mechanism And Emission Reduction Path Of Carbon Emissions In China’s Manufacturing Industry From A Multiple Perspective Of Supply And Demand

In the process of economic development,carbon dioxide emissions caused by energy consumption exacerbate climate warming,which in turn has a serious impact on socio-economic development and the environment.Controlling and reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the main way to address climate change.In the face of the pressure on the human living environment caused by global warming,China is actively assuming the responsibility of reducing emissions as the world’s largest carbon emitter,clearly formulating emission reduction measures,and incorporating carbon emission reduction and low-carbon development into one of the important themes of future environmental governance.As the main body of the current national economy and a key area of carbon emissions,the manufacturing industry has formed an energy structure dominated by fossil fuels such as coal and an extensive economic growth model.However,with the lifting of epidemic prevention and control measures and economic recovery,it has brought enormous challenges to environmental pollution control.Carbon emission reduction in China’s manufacturing industry is related to highquality development during the "14th Five Year Plan" period,and is also an essential and important link in the carbon peak policy system.Therefore,under the premise of ensuring the reasonable energy demand,it is urgent for the manufacturing industry to optimize the current energy consumption structure and industrial development structure,and achieve the carbon peak target as scheduled.Under the above background,from the perspectives of supply and demand,and on the basis of systematically sorting out and summarizing relevant theories and researches at home and abroad,this thesis makes quantitative and qualitative evaluation on the key issues of low-carbon development in China’s manufacturing industry,such as the characteristics,structure,internal and external driving factors and emission reduction path selection.The main innovative work and conclusions are as follows: 1)Analyze the carbon emission characteristics of China’s manufacturing industry and the evolution trend during the 13 th Five Year Plan period from the perspective of carbon emission accounting based on the principles of producer-based,consumer-based,and incomebased.2)Based on the improved input-output subsystem decomposition model,this thesis decomposed and analyzed the consumer principle carbon emissions of China’s manufacturing industry,and constructed the transmission path map of manufacturing carbon emissions,and then evaluated the carbon emission correlation effect of the manufacturing sector on upstream industries from the perspective of demand,in order to supplement the demand policies to solve the indirect carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry.3)Using LMDI method,the decomposition model of carbon emission driving factors of China’s manufacturing industry income-based principle is established to quantify the contribution of internal and external driving factors of manufacturing industry to carbon emission changes of manufacturing sector in different stages of the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,aiming to comprehensively evaluate the influence of the existing economic and energy consumption development path of China’s manufacturing industry on carbon emission changes.4)Build a manufacturing supply side carbon emission prediction model(LEAP-MI model)under the LEAP framework,and simulate and predict the supply side carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry from 2021 to 2050 under various scenarios,and evaluate the decomposition of driving factors for the peak carbon emissions of the manufacturing supply side in different scenarios and the contribution of sub sectors.5)Identify the best path to promote carbon emission reduction in China’s manufacturing industry and achieve the "dual carbon" target on schedule.The main conclusions obtained are as follows: 1)There are significant differences in carbon emissions under the three accounting principles,indicating that the stable correlation effect between the manufacturing sector and upstream and downstream industrial sectors should be comprehensively considered when formulating carbon emission reduction policies in the future.2)The indirect and direct spillover components accounted for 68.36% and 15.86% of the total emissions,respectively,indicating that the manufacturing industry also had a relatively large backward correlation effect with the upstream industry,and had a strong driving effect on the upstream industry carbon emissions,mainly manifested in the demand for energy,resources and logistics services.3)Energy structure and energy intensity have negative effects on carbon emissions of manufacturing subsectors.The output benefit,industrial structure and economic scale effect play a positive role.In addition,the carbon emission reduction effect of China’s resource processing industry sector is more significant,indicating that the high-carbon sector can generate relatively large carbon emission reduction potential by adjusting the energy structure and improving energy utilization efficiency.4)All the four scenarios could achieve the peak and decline of carbon emissions,and the peaks of BLS,IDS,ETS and CRS were 50.15,49.05,42.48 and4.485 billion tons,respectively.However,only ETS and CRS scenarios could achieve the target of carbon emissions peak before 2030.5)From the comparison of BLS and ETS scenarios,it can be concluded that the best way for China’s energy structure transformation to promote carbon reduction is to implement the alternative strategy of low-carbon energy as the main energy and clean energy as the secondary energy in the short and medium term,and develop the energy structure transformation strategy of clean energy replacing fossil energy comprehensively in the long term.In addition,the improvement of energy use efficiency has greater carbon emission inhibition effect than the transformation of energy structure in the short term.From a long-term perspective,only by transforming the energy structure to non-fossil energy can the environmental problems caused by carbon emissions be fundamentally solved and the effective "decoupling" of economic development and carbon emissions from energy consumption be realized.Based on the above conclusions,in order to promote the manufacturing industry to achieve the "dual carbon" goal while maintaining high-quality development,this thesis proposes targeted policy recommendations from the perspectives of carbon emission structure differences,industrial structure adjustment,industrial relevance,energy transformation,and technological innovation in the manufacturing sector.This thesis has 35 figures,15 tables,180 references,31 Attached Tables.