| Cultivated land in China because of population increase,"two"(a new industrialization and urbanization)speed,industry structure adjustment,makes the "non-agricultural" trend has become increasingly apparent.Coupled with severe problems such as large-scale abandonment of cultivated land,soil erosion,non-point source pollution,etc.the number of cultivated land resources is continuously reduced,which poses a serious threat to the effective use of cultivated land resources and sustainable agricultural development.Therefore,solving the shortage of cultivated land resources has become one of the focus issues of many scholars.As an important part of the international trade system,agricultural product trade connects the two ends of different factor endowments,plays an important role in the rational flow of resources and optimal allocation,and is a powerful starting point for the high-quality development of modern agriculture.The proposal of virtual farmland resources is based on the product production location and product demand location,relying on the advantages of market scale,taking the production side as the entry point,deep integration of the global factor division of labor,and realizing the optimal allocation of resources,in order to alleviate the infinite and social development of the domestic economy.The contradiction of the limited arable land resources provides a new choice,which has important theoretical value and practical significance for better participation in international agricultural product trade,scientific implementation of virtual arable land resource strategies,and correct formulation of reasonable land management policies and trade strategies.This research systematically combs the relevant theories of virtual cultivated land resources,and sorts out,summarizes and reviews domestic and foreign research trends from the concept,trade,and influencing factors of virtual cultivated land resources.It is found that most of the existing studies have discussed the quantitative accounting,factor flow,potential measurement,trade balance game of virtual cultivated land resources,but there are few researches on the import effect of virtual cultivated land resources,contribution,driving factors and policy evaluation.Therefore,this study introduces the concept of "virtual cultivated land resources",constructs a theoretical model analysis framework with the import inspection of virtual cultivated land resources as the prerequisite,the contribution effect and driving factors of virtual cultivated land resources import as the core content,and the evaluation and adjustment of virtual cultivated land resources import policy as the target position,and deconstructs and logically arranges its analysis framework.In the specific operation process,this study takes the calculation of virtual cultivated land resources import and analysis of the characteristics of virtual cultivated land resources import as the starting point,uses Solow economic growth model and threshold effect model to test whether there are "tail effect" and "curse effect" in the import of virtual cultivated land resources,uses the growth accounting model to analyze its import contribution effect,uses the multiple linear regression method and LMDI decomposition method to analyze and decompose its driving factors.The endogenous economic growth model is used to evaluate the policy effect of virtual cultivated land resource import,and on this basis,the potential of virtual cultivated land resource import is predicted,so as to better adjust the strategy and optimize the path of virtual cultivated land resource import.The main conclusions are as follows: First,the import status of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products in China.Firstly,the net imports of the main agricultural products increased at an average annual rate of 11.93%.Among them,oil accounted for more than 80%;cereals shifted from net exports to net imports,accounting for 7%;cotton fluctuated considerably and had an "M" pattern in recent years;sugar and sugars were all over 25,000hectares;and vegetables and fruits were net exports.Secondly,the structure of main agricultural products in our country the virtual cultivated land resources import coefficient is less than 1 to verify the results of the main agricultural products in our country the virtual potential of cultivated land resource imports on the domestic resources to alleviate this reality.Thirdly,main agricultural products virtual cultivated land resources import source is relatively concentrated,and the import trade dependence degree increases unceasingly,mainly distributes in Brazil,the United States,Argentina and Australia.Fourthly,the net import of cultivated land resources and the actual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products in China can be fitted by quadratic equation,and there is a significant positive relationship between them.Second,the test of import effect of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products in China.First,there is no "Tail effect" in the import of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products,but there are obvious differences when it comes to specific agricultural products.Among them,sugar,grain and cotton showed restraint,the degree of obstruction was 0.62%,0.20%,0.16% respectively;oil showed promotion,the degree of promotion was 6.02%;the growth rate of the virtual cultivated land resources exceeded the growth rate of labor,it is further confirmed that China is a large net importer of virtual cultivated land resources.Second,there is no "Curse" effect in the import of virtual cultivated land resources of major agricultural products in China,but rather a narrow sense of "Gospel" effect of resources,and the influence of the abundance of virtual cultivated land resources on agricultural economic growth mainly depends on the influence of physical capital,human capital,natural endowment and government intervention,the relative contribution was 15.90%,72.15%,5.33% and 6.63%,respectively.Third,the import of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products has effectively promoted the growth of agricultural economy.In theory,on the one hand,the implementation of the trade of virtual cultivated land resources can continuously adjust the agricultural planting structure;on the other hand,the optimal allocation of cultivated land resources can be realized in a larger scope,bring into play its social value,economic value and ecological value.Empirically,On the one hand,the introduction of the virtual cultivated land resources can increase the agricultural total factor productivity by 2.28% and the agricultural economic growth rate by 0.26%;on the other hand,the contribution share of the agricultural economic growth is 3.12% on average,and before and after the financial crisis and China-US trade friction,the contribution share fluctuates greatly,the growth is obviously negative.Fourth,the driving factors of virtual cultivated land import of main agricultural products in China.Subjectively,the import of virtual cultivated land resources of China's main agricultural products is mainly affected by supply factors,demand factors and other factors.The rural population,effective irrigation area and grain yield per unit area,which represent the input factors of agricultural production,have significant negative effects,and the investment amount of fixed assets has significant positive effects,the per capita disposable income of cities and towns and the export volume of China's main agricultural products,which represent the potential of demand,have a significant negative effect;the GDP index,which represents other factors,has a significant positive effect;moreover,the influence of the remaining factors is not significant,but the direction is more consistent with the subjective.Objectively,the change of net imports of virtual cultivated land resources is the result of six factors: intensity effect,quality effect,dependence effect,structure effect,economic effect and demand effect.Among them,quality effect(219.52%),economic effect(15.41%),structure effect(8.75%)and demand effect(2.05%)are the positive driving factors of the net import of virtual cultivated land resources,the intensity effect(-4.56%)and dependence effect(-141.17%)are the reverse driving factors of the net imports of virtual cultivated land resources.Fifth,the policy evaluation and land-saving potential of virtual cultivated land resource import of main agricultural products in China.Firstly,under the visual threshold of virtual cultivated land resources,the effect of China's long-term macroeconomic policies on agricultural trade as a whole occupies a dominant position,which can offset some of the volatility of short-term macroeconomic policies;It can make up for the lag caused by long-term macro-policy,but the continuous increase of virtual cultivated land resource import may weaken the effect of economic growth.Secondly,the resources of virtual cultivated land of main agricultural products are abundant in China,which can save 103978.38 thousand hectares of cultivated land with great potential.Sixth,China's main agricultural products virtual cultivated land resources import strategy adjustment and path optimization.The adjustment of import policy mainly includes innovating the management system of cultivated land resources,implementing the strategy of virtual cultivated land resources in pilot projects,and strictly defining the power boundary of "government-market".The adjustment of import scale mainly includes the establishment of the mechanism for evaluating the import demand of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products,the delimitation of the "identification zone" for the import of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products,and the combination of the import scale of virtual cultivated land resources with the issue of "agriculture,rural areas and farmers" in China.The adjustment of import structure has increased the import of oil crops and moderately expanded the import of cereals.The adjustment of import sources involves strengthening and maintaining ties with traditional agricultural trading countries in the near future,deepening cooperation with large agricultural resource countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan in the medium term,and strengthening agricultural production capacity cooperation with Africa,especially East Africa,in the long term.The main ways of optimization are adjusting and giving full play to the import support policy of agricultural products,strengthening the internal and external coordination to ensure the safety of domestic agricultural industry,optimizing the distribution of international markets,realizing the diversification of import sources,and utilizing international markets and resources to enhance the control of agricultural products trade.The main contribution of this study is to measure the import characteristics of China's main agricultural products virtual cultivated land resources from the perspective of demand management,which provides a multi-dimensional scientific reference for China's agricultural products import and self-sufficiency;constructs the theoretical model framework of virtual cultivated land resources,and investigates the import status of China's main agricultural products virtual cultivated land resources from the perspectives of virtual cultivated land resources import effect test,import contribution effect and driving factors,import policy evaluation and strategy adjustment,which widens the research field and scope,and further enriches the research theoretical system;attempts to use Solow model,growth accounting model,endogenous economic growth model,threshold effect model,LMDI and other multivariate statistical and data mining methods to analyze the import effect evaluation,driving factors and strategy adjustment of China's main agricultural products virtual cultivated land resources,which promotes the construction of research methods and research system.It is an interdisciplinary and multi theoretical applied research. |
PDF Full Text Request