| Urban growth is widely regarded as an important driver of environmental and social problems. It causes the loss of informal open space and wildlife habitats. Timely and accurate assessments of future urban growth scenarios and associated environmental impacts are crucial for urban planning, policy decision, and natural resource management. Now extensive urban research focuses on the dynamics of urban systems and their ecology. This study proposes a framework for understanding the dynamics of urban growth, particularly the continuing environmental problem of it. I seek to make the linkage between urban growth and ecological status to create new knowledge for urban growth management strategies. In this research, I use the Orlando metropolitan region. The central Florida region has been experiencing "explosive" growth, with continuous urban development. As a result, remaining habitat areas will become fragmented and isolated from one another as well as outright habitat loss. According to the U.S Geological Survey, if 7 million acres are developed as predicted in 50 years, black bears will lose 2.3 million acres of habitat and wild turkeys will lose 2.1 million acres of habitat in Florida especially in the central Florida. More and better understanding of the effects of different patterns and forms of urban development on habitat quality is needed for analytical purpose in strategies planning.;The first part of this dissertation explored a set of quantitative variables to characterize urban forms at the metropolitan level and, in particular, to distinguish compactness from 'sprawl' with GIS and remote sensing frameworks. six dimensions of sprawl indicators (size, density, continuity, scattering, shape and loss of green space) were selected and evaluated for the Greater Orlando Metropolitan Region. The result from the study showed that spatial characteristics of sprawl can be objectively analyzed and meaningfully quantified. The second part of this dissertation generated different planning scenarios for the purpose of evaluation future and use changes and their impacts on nature environments such as wetland, forest and grass lands. five distinct scenarios ("no constraints", "compact development", "transit-oriented development", "agriculture protection" and "environmental protection" scenarios) were tested on Greater Orlando, along with conservation objectives. The results from this work indicated that urban development within the urban service boundary was reflected in the simulation for the regional vision of compact and sustainable development showing the least loss and fragmentation of green patches among the different scenarios. The last part of the study examined the consequences of alternative scenarios of urban growth change on the abundance and arrangement of potential habitat for a suite of species and vegetation habitats. As a result, the maximum impact is projected in "no constraints" scenario while minimum impact occurred in Scenario 5 ("environmental protection") across almost all vegetation and species habitats. The results indicated that the big challenge is how to manage compact growth to protect ecosystems. As expected, this study confirmed the ability of growth management policies (i.e. compact development and environmental protection) to influence future urban development. Especially compact development design clearly illustrated the potential power in protecting natural resources as well as controlling spatial pattern of human settlement. The findings of my research have facilitated the use of more appropriate tools and technologies to monitor macro-scale long-term changes to urban environments. |
