Research On Technical Structure Of China’s Manufacturing Export

Since 1992,the total exports of China’s manufacturing have accounted for more than 85% of the total exports,which has reached 94.3% in 2015.The proportion of China’s manufacturing exports to the world’s manufacturing exports has also increased steadily,reaching 18% by 2014.China is already a big country in the export of manufacturing.However,"big" is not the aim,and "strong" is the inevitable choice.The 19 th CPC National Congress stressed the need to focus on the economic development of the real economy,and China’s manufacturing needs to go to the middling and high level in the global value chain.Export enterprises have higher labor productivity than non-export enterprises(Bernard and Jensen,1999),therefore the upgrading of Technical Structure of Export not only embodies the competition of China’s manufacturing,but also the inevitable process of China’s manufacturing to high quality development,and the key part of the transformation of China’s economic structure at the present stage.Based on Global Value Chain,China’s manufacturing exports continue to expand,but at the same time,China’s manufacturing exports still lie at the middle and low level of the value chain.Although China’s manufacturing export technology structure is improving,there is still a gap between developed countries and developed countries.Great changes have taken place in the internal and external environment of China’s manufacturing.At home,along with the great achievements of China’s economy,the wage level of manufacturing practitioners from 1980 to 2015 grew by about 14 times,and the labor force began to decrease after 2012,with increased pressure of wage increase.Internationally,with China launched the "Made in China 2025" plan,at the same time,the United States proposed to return to manufacturing,and Germany proposed industry 4.0.Trade protection is on the rise and trade policy is changing.Under the pressure of Global trade environment and wage inflation,the demand for upgrading the technical structure of China’s manufacturing export is even more urgent.Improving the technical structure of China’s manufacturing export is not only a performance of development of China’s manufacturing to the high level in the GVC,it is an important performance of our country’s economic development to high-quality.Under this background,this article takes the technical structure of China’s manufacturing export as the research object,based on the endogenous growth model of export technology and Hausmann(2006)model,analyzes deep mechanism that affects the upgrading of technological structure of manufacturingexport and makes a systematic theoretical analysis of the upgrading mechanism on technology structure of export.This article examines the status quo of the technical structure of China’s manufacturing export from a multi-perspective and compares the technological structure of China’s manufacturing export with that of Japan’s manufacturing export.The author also empirically tests the influencing factors on the technological structure of China’s manufacturing export.Then draw some practical conclusions,and provide some policy suggestions on the basis of this.The thesis is divided into four parts:The first part,the first chapter and the second chapter of the thesis,mainly introduces the relevant introduction and literature review of the topic.The first chapter introduces the background,the purpose and significance of the topic,the structure,research methods and technology roadmap,possibility innovation and shortcomings.The second chapter is the literature review,first is the theory of technical structure of export,respectively,from the comparative advantage theory,similar demand theory,endogenous growth theory,new trade theory,the product space and the evolution of comparative advantage theory;followed by the review of evaluation methods of technical structure of export,including trade classification,revealed comparative advantage,export sophistication,height,technical structure of export similarity,the global value chain index,and points out that the analysis of the technical structure of export in the empirical analysis of using complexity which calculated with domestic export value added,and improved the existing problems in the calculation method;the last part of this chapter is study on the related technical structure of export,it introduces the relationship between the vertical specialization,FDI,financial development,infrastructure,the protection of right and so on with the technical structure of export.The second part is the mechanism analysis,that is the third chapter.This chapter is divided into three parts,firstly it analyzes the connotation technical structure of export upgrading in manufacturing;secondly,under the framework of the endogenous growth model,based on Hausmann(2006)model,it discussed the mechanism of technical structure of export upgrading in manufacturing.The upgrading of technical structure of export in manufacturing depends on the external knowledge accumulation(foreign direct investment and foreign trade),internal accumulation of knowledge(human capital,R & D investment)and other factors(infrastructure,financial services,policies and measures);finally,it analyzes theway to upgrade the technology structure of export in manufacturing,technology spillover,human capital,economies of scale and cost saving.The third part is the situation analysis,that is the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter.In the fourth chapter,the author collected country data and provincial data to measure the technical structure of export in different sectors.First,the author has collected SITC rev.2 three-digit encoding from 2002 to 2015 export data,43 countries industry export value added data from 2000 to 2014 in WIOD2016 and per capita GDP data.Then calculate the total export complexity,the global value chain index,export sophistication and revealed comparative advantage.Second,the author has collected the 31 provinces’ export data and per capita GDP data from2009 to2016,then estimates the manufacturing export complex and industry export sophistication.On this basis,first,we comb the evolution of technical structure of export in manufacturing.Secondly,we analyze the current situation of China’s technical structure of export in manufacturing from different perspectives.Finally,we compare with Japanese in technical structure of export.The fifth chapter is the mechanism and restriction factors of technical structure of export upgrading.The first part analyzes the new trend of the development of global manufacturing and the new characteristics of the development of manufacturing in China from the macro point of view,and the complex internal and external conditions,which are both opportunities and challenges for China’s technical structure of export.The second part,the author deeply discusses the mechanism of upgrading the technical structure of export in manufacturing.The third part,we analyze the restrictive factors that affect the upgrading of the technical structure of the export of China’s manufacturing.Because of the increasing uncertainty of external conditions,internal factors become the main constraint factors that affect the technical structure of export in China’s manufacturing.The fourth part is the empirical analysis,the sixth chapter of the paper.The panel data of 31 provinces from 2009 to 2015 to make an empirical analysis.Taking human capital accumulation,R&D investment and foreign direct investment as explanatory variables,static panel regression and dynamic panel regression were carried out with open degree and per capita fixed assets as control variables.In order to separate the different effects of each period,this chapter carries out an empirical test in two periods.In order to further explore the factors that influence the upgrading of technical structure of export in the eastern,central and western regions,31 provinces were divided into three regions: East,central and West.The results show that the accumulation of human capital and R & D input significantly promote the upgrading of the technical structure of export,and the role of human capital accumulation is becoming more and more obvious.The following conclusions are drawn through theoretical and empirical analysis:First,the technical structure of China’s manufacturing export has been gradually improved,but it is still in the middle and low end of the division of labor in the value chain.China’s manufacturing technical structure of export gradually improve.The technical structure of export in low technology industry and high technology industry has been promoted rapidly,and the technical structure of export in medium technology industry is not improved obviously.From the perspective of global value chain,China has become more involved in the vertical division of labor.The backward participation is greater than forward participation.Although participation in the division of global value chain position has increased,but is still in the low-end position.Second,the development of technical structure of China’s manufacturing export is not coordinated,and there is a large gap between regions.First,there is a big gap among the provinces.There are 18 above average levels in 31 provinces,and 13 below the average level.The higher technical structure of export is mainly located in the east,and the lower one is mainly located in the west.Second,the products with comparative advantage are majority of low technology products,high technology products accounted for less.Third,human capital and R & D investment are the key to the upgrading of the technical structure of export trade.Product is the carrier of a country’s knowledge and ability,and human capital and R & D investment have significantly promoted the upgrading of the technological structure of China’s manufacturing export.From a regional perspective,the role of human capital accumulation in the upgrading of the technical structure of export is the largest in the eastern region,the second in the central region and the smallest in the western region.The role of R & D investment in upgrading the technical structure of export trade is the largest in the western region,the second in the eastern region and the smallest in the central region.The role of openness in upgrading the technical structure of export is the largest in the central region,the second in the eastern region and the smallest in the westernregion;The coefficient of upgrading the technical structure of the export in the eastern region has the greatest influence on the upgrading of FDI.The effect of foreign direct investment in the western region on the technical structure of export is not significant.