Study On Business Cyclicity And Rational Expectation Management Of China's Coal Industry

The research object of this paper is the innovation of China's coal industry management system and mechanism and its related issues.The research focuses on the business cycle and rational expectation management of China's coal industry.For a long time,the excessive fluctuation of the coal industrial economy has brought a very negative impact on the stable development of the national economy and society.However,there is still lack of deeper research on the following issues,such as how to deal with the business cycle fluctuation of coal industry,the relationship between the business cycle fluctuation of coal industry and the management of coal industry,the realization degree of coal industry management goal,and how to improve the management level of coal industry based on the law of industrial business cycle fluctuation.Therefore,it is difficult to form the theoretical basis and method to guide the rational management of the coal industry and to iron the cycle fluctuation of industrial economy.It is foreseeable that the coal industry will still be predominant energy in China for a long time in the future.So taking efforts to maintain the stability of the coal industry is still a matter with regard to overall situation,and the quality of coal industry management is still the key to maintain stable operation of the coal industry.Therefore,it is necessary to study the business cycle fluctuations and industrial management problems of China's coal industry,analyze the problems,find out the internal laws,and form new ideas,so as to promote the industrial economy operation at a high level through the high quality industrial management.Based on the theories of business cycle,industrial cycle,rational expectation and coal industrial management,this paper mainly carries out the following research:(1)Starting with the phenomenon,this paper analyzes the "reversal" phenomenon between China's coal industry management and the trend of the coal industry economy in different periods since the reform and opening-up by historical and comparative methods.(2)Using empirical and normative methods to analyze the essential problem,the "compliance" of China's coal industry management,and the relationship between "compliance" and the "reversal" phenomenon.The adverse effects and causes of the "compliance" are also analyzed.(3)In order to get rid of "compliance" in China's coal industry management,this paper draws on the idea of rational expectation management,and applies the system theory to put forward the rational expectation management target mode based on the business cycle of China's coal industry.(4)Based on the coal production,coal consumption,coal industry revenue and profit,this paper analyzes the business cycle of China's coal industry which is the basis of the rational expectation of China's coal industry by CF filtering method,and explains the reasons for the formation of the business cycle of China's coal industry by Marxism business cycle theory and the western business cycle theory.(5)Based on the business cycle of the coal industry,this paper selects 19 indexes related to coal industry economy,and constructs China coal industry economic climate index model by using the composite index method.(6)Taking the above model as a basic tool and combining with the "antecedent index",the method of "counter-cycle adjustment",this paper puts forward a series of ideas and approaches to realize rational expectation management of China's coal industry based on industrial business cycle,including short-term method,long-term mechanism,macro support and micro foundation.The main innovations of the paper follows that:(1)Reveal the "reversal" phenomenon of China's coal industry management and the trend of the industrial economy,and use the "compliance" of China's coal industry management to explain it.Chapter 2 of the paper describes the "reversal" phenomenon between coal industry management and industrial economic trend,which is in the too optimistic and too pessimistic situation expectation at every fluctuation turning point of China's coal industry since the reform and opening-up.Chapter 3 analyzes the "compliance" problems of China's coal industry management,such as compliance with development indicators and so on,and points out that,these "compliance" problems make coal industry management objectives divorced from reality and lagged behind changes of situation,lost of objectivity and in its limitations and deviated from the right track,which is the root cause of the above "reversal" phenomenon.(2)Drawing on the idea of rational expectation management and applying the system theory to establish the rational expectation management target model of China's coal industry based on the business cycle of China's coal industry.Chapter 4 analyses and proposes that,it is the key to overcome the "compliance" of industrial management to grasp the cyclical law of industrial economy and establish rational expectations,so we need to build the rational management mode of China's coal industry based on the industrial business cycle.According to the requirements of rational expectation management,China's coal industry management departments should adhere to some principles,such as establishing clear rules of the industry policy and maintaining the continuity and stability of policies and so on.In the rational expectation management mode of China's coal industry,the manager should be the coal industry management department with "centralized power,clear responsibility,professional authority,advanced means".Its management objects include coal enterprises,coal resources,coal production capacity,coal market and so on.Its environmental conditions include four contents,such as market environment,institutional environment,social environment and professional conditions.(3)Building China coal industry economic climate index model with multilayered sub-indexes,and based on this model,forming a long-term mechanism and construction of the microcosmic foundation for rational expectation management of China's coal industry based on the industrial business cycle by the way of "counter-cycle adjustment".On the basis of the proof to objective existence and continuity of the business cycle of China's coal industry in chapter 5,chapter 6 constructs China coal industry economic climate index model based on the multilayered indicators of macroeconomy,coal and downstream industries.Then taking this climate index as a tool,chapter 6 constructs "counter-cycle adjustment" equation on the management object of coal industry,such as coal resources,coal production capacity,coal industry investment and liability ratio of coal enterprises,which can be used as a "clear rule" in coal industry management.Thus,forming a long-term mechanism to help realize rational expectation management of China's coal industry based on industrial business cycle.In addition,chapter 6 also proposes that,we should provide macro support for the rational expectation management of China's coal industry by optimizing the relationship between the government and the market,the government and the enterprises,the central and the local,and we should also build a good micro foundation for the rational expectation management of China's coal industry,by speeding up to increase the concentration of coal industry and forming the relevant system arrangement of coal enterprises based on rational expectation.