Research On Financial Expectation And Enterprises Risk Management

With the continuous development of social economy,Chinese economic level has risen to a new height.However,in recent years,the problem of excess capacity led by resource-based enterprises has become increasingly serious,production efficiency has begun to decline,performance growth has slowed down,and environmental problems such as waste of resources have become more prominent.Thus,the 2015 Central Economic Work Conference put forward that the five tasks of Chinese future economic and social development are " Three go,one drop and one supplement ".It is the only way for Chinese economic and social development to carry out supply-side reform in order to adjust the balance between supply and demand and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.Under this policy background,Tongling Nonferrous Metals Corporation,as a large-scale listed state-owned enterprise,conforms to the development trend of the industry,actively responds to the national macro-policy,deepens the reform,drives the development of the main industry by innovation,carries out the reform of mixed ownership,introduces the employee stock ownership plan,and carries out a series of capital operations.On the eve of the implementation of the mixed reform,the company suffered serious losses and succeeded in turning losses into profits in the year of the mixed reform.The abnormal fluctuation of the company's financial performance exposed many risks and loopholes in the process of production and operation.Under the background of the supply-side reform,whether the introduction of the mixed reform of employee stock ownership plan can effectively help the company out of the operating difficulties,reduce costs and increase efficiency,and create a new situation for the company.New performance growth points need to be analyzed in depth.Based on the above considerations,this paper uses the theory and method of financial expectation and risk management to analyze the overall situation of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Corporation before and after the mixed reform.Financial expectation is the application of expectation theory in finance.It emphasizes that decision-makers with heterogeneous and bounded rationality can continuously predict and judge the opportunities that affect the financial performance of a company and transmit them to the subjective psychological behavior of financial decision-making.Successful financial expectations can help guide the company to develop in a sustainable and healthy direction.This process can not be separated from a sound enterprise comprehensive risk management system.The updated COSO-ERM framework in 2017 emphasizes risk management as a culture,capability and practice integrated with enterprise strategy and value creation,and further clarifies the importance of comprehensive risk management in company management.Therefore,this paper quotes the latest research areas in corporate finance and risk management to analyze the performance of corporate mixing under the background of Tongling non-ferrous supply side in detail.First,using the theory and method of financial expectation,this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the motivation,formation path,main body and transmission mechanism of financial expectation of corporate decision-makers in a specific context.After analyzing the financial performance and market reaction before and after the company's mixing,it is found that the company's real mixing performance has not developed in the direction expected by the decision makers.The company's stock price has continued to be depressed.The abnormal fluctuating performance exposes many risks in the financing,investment and production and operation links of the company.Therefore,this paper continues to quote the elements and principles of the new version of COSO-ERM framework in 2017 to study the risk management of Tongling Nonferrous Metals based on financial expectations,and to analyze the existing problems of the company's risk management.Finally,it is concluded that the underlying reason why the company's actual performance fails to meet expectations after the mixing is the lack of a comprehensive risk management concept and a complete risk management system,and the slow response to risks.Finally,in view of the problems arising under the specific background of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Corporation,the paper puts forward suggestions for the company's operation from two perspectives of financial decision-making and risk management respectively,and expects to provide new ideas for improving the company's operation and management to resource-based enterprises under the background of reform.