| In recent years,with the rapid development of high-speed rail,the competition and cooperation of high-speed rail civil aviation have become more and more intense and in-depth.Analyzing and mastering the fields and strategies of high-speed rail civil aviation competition and cooperation is of great practical significance for reducing internal friction and improving the service level&social welfare.Based on the above purpose,this paper constructs a high-speed rail civil aviation competition and cooperation game model from the perspective of passengers,using questionnaire survey,evaluation decision-making,game theory,simulation analysis and other methods.It makes a thorough study on the mode and strategy of high-speed rail civil aviation competition and cooperation,and obtains short,medium and long-distance high-speed rail civil aviation competition and cooperation strategies for three types of passengers which are tourists,official&business and rework&return to school.The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)For different types of passengers,a set of high-speed rail civil aviation competition factors with 6 standard layers and 30 indicators has been established.Using the safety accident rate,the degree of fare fluctuation,the total population of the region and other specific indicators and from six levels of safety,convenience,economy,comfort,reliability,external factors to explain the influence factors affecting passenger travel decisions;Based on and starts from three types of passengers' perspectives,the cloud model is used to calculate the cloud model and cloud weight of each indicator,and finally the evaluation results of the overall civil aviation and high-speed rail industry under three types of passengers'perspectives are obtained.The empirical results show that the overall level of high-speed rail is higher than that of civil aviation from the passengers' perspectives of tourists and rework&return to school.As a product of new-born&high-level transportation industry,high-speed rail also brings higher standard travel experience for passengers and meanwhile satisfying their freshness.However,it is worth noting that the high-speed rail itself performs lower than the civil aviation in terms of comfort.On the other hand,from the overall demand perspective,high-speed rail occupies the source of two types of passengers mentioned above which is causing greater impact on civil aviation enterprises.For civil aviation,it is slightly inferior to high-speed rail,but its comfort is relatively prominent in all aspects of its own.Civil aviation needs to continuously improve itself in the competition with high-speed rail and enhance service levels&capabilities in order to increase market share in transportation industry.(2)Describing the behavior preference of high-speed rail civil aviation travel choice based on three types of passengers' perspectives.In order to describe the travel choice behavior of high-speed rail civil aviation passengers,this paper gives details latitude preference function of the travel choice of high-speed rail civil aviation passengers,and uses the non-linear regression method to construct the model of the behavior preference test and analysis,and determines the behavior preference of the travel choice of high-speed rail civil aviation passengers.Focusing on the different purposes of travel,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the behavior preference characteristics of travel selection,puts forward a framework for determining the travel preference of high-speed rail civil aviation based on three types of passengers' perspectives,and analyses in more details from the five dimensions of benefits,punctuality,comfort,convenience and safety.Drawing lessons from the utility theory in economics to measure the degree of satisfaction brought by each different type of passengers,the utility preference equation of passenger travel choice is constructed one by one which is further extending and deepening the existing theoretical model framework of passenger travel choice preferences for high-speed rail civil aviation.The empirical results show that the three types of passengers have different preferences for high-speed rail civil aviation but all attach great importance to safety preferences.Tourists attach great importance to affordable and convenient preferences,while official&business passengers attach great importance to punctuality,comfort and convenience preferences but are not very sensitive to affordable preference.However,rework&return to school passengers pay great attention to affordable preferences,and if they choose to travel on civil aviation,it also pays more attention to punctuality and convenience preferences.The three types of passengers are sensitive to prices;both the actual fare and expected price are inversely proportional with the value of their utility function.The longer the journey time and the delay time,the worse the punctuality experience for the three types of passengers.The longer the journey time,the worse the discomfort,which resulting in the worse the overall comfort experience,and the cost of non-transit time will reduce the convenience utility value of three types of passengers.(3)The competing game model of high-speed rail civil aviation is constructed.By considering the five dimensions of benefits,punctuality,comfort,convenience and safety,the utility function of passenger travel is constructed,and the competing game range of high-speed rail civil aviation is solved by the principle of utility function maximization.The competitive relationship model of high-speed rail civil aviation from price perspective is constructed through the Cournot duopoly model.And based on Bertrand game theory,this paper also constructs a model of high-speed rail civil aviation competition from distance perspective,and discusses the competing status of high-speed rail civil aviation under different strategies.The empirical results show that under the perspectives of three types of passengers of tourists,official&business,and rework&return to school,the main competition distance areas of high-speed rail civil aviation are in the ranges of 500km-900km,300km-800km,and 600km-110km,respectively.Passengers of tourists and rework&return to school are more sensitive to prices,while passengers of official&business are less sensitive to prices.Compared with the competition range of passengers of official&business,the distance of high-speed rail civil aviation competition range is longer from the perspective of passengers of tourists;Compared with the competition range of passengers of rework&return to school,the distance of high-speed rail civil aviation competition range is shorter from the perspective of passengers of tourists.At the same time,although the starting point of evolution of the three types of passengers is not the same,the ultimate direction of evolution is to compete with each other and enter a vicious cycle of competition.Through the analysis of the game delivery matrix of high-speed rail civil aviation,it is found that if both parties choose to cooperate with each other,the benefit will be greater than the benefit coefficient of the two parties' choice of competition-cooperation,cooperation-competition,and competition-competition.It demonstrates that it can be transformed from a vicious cycle of free evolution to a virtuous competition with the help of government policy in which both parties can increase their benefits.(4)It puts forward a micro-strategy of high-speed rail civil aviation competition based on three types of passengers'perspectives.Based on the passengers'perspectives of tourists,official&business,and rework&return to school,the following detail strategies for the competition of high-speed rail civil aviation are proposed:First of all,it is the competition strategy of high-speed rail civil aviation.High-speed rail mainly has price strategies,service strategies,and location strategies while civil aviation mainly has price strategy,service strategy,and route strategy and etc.Secondly,it is the cooperation strategy of high-speed rail civil aviation which includes the air-rail inter-modality strategy and information sharing strategy.Furthermore,it further summarizes the details competition strategies of the three types of passengers at different distances.Combining the different preferences of three types of passengers,this paper analyzes the details competition strategies of the three types of passengers in short,medium and long distance,and provides a reference for guiding the competition game of high-speed rail civil aviation to a higher stage. |
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