Research On The Influence Of Weather Factors On Civil Aviation Capacity And Passenger Flow Of High-speed Railway

Vigorously improving the comprehensive transportation network is one of the important measures to implement the 14 th Five-Year Plan.As strategic industries in the comprehensive transportation system,civil aviation and high-speed rail will further play a leading role in promoting regional industrial construction.Weather,as one of the influencing factors of passenger transportation,mainly affects transportation service capacity and passenger travel behavior.At present,due to the limitation of airspace resources and meteorological conditions,flight delays occur frequently in China.With the advancement of air traffic control reform,the performance of modern aircraft and the increasing level of maintenance,weather has gradually become an important factor affecting the normal flight of flights.At the same time,short-term passenger flow forecast as an important part of railway passenger transport organization,also need to consider the interference of weather factors.Based on this,this paper will study the impact of weather on civil aviation capacity and high-speed rail passenger flow.In this paper,the collected weather warning data are used to characterize the bad weather.Through the qualitative analysis of the characteristics of abnormal flights leaving the port and the influence of weather on the abnormal flight rate,a prediction model of abnormal flight rate based on weather warning is constructed.At the same time,the influencing factors of specific flights are further analyzed and incorporated into the characteristic variables,and the prediction model of abnormal departure state of specific flights based on weather warning is established.Based on the study of the influence of bad weather on the abnormal rate of civil aviation flights and the historical data of high-speed rail passenger flow between Beijing and Shanghai,this paper further analyzes three possible ways of bad weather affecting high-speed rail passenger flow: the change of high-speed rail capacity,the transfer of civil aviation passenger flow and the change of passenger travel intention.On this basis,a short-term prediction model of high-speed rail passenger flow considering the influence of bad weather is proposed.Firstly,the weather warning data are used to predict the abnormal flights and the fluctuation of high-speed rail passenger flow,and then the conventional short-term passenger flow prediction model of high-speed rail is modified by the prediction results.The empirical results prove the effect of the constructed model on improving the prediction accuracy of high-speed rail passenger flow under the influence of bad weather.This paper takes the passenger transport market between Beijing and Shanghai as the research object,and studies the impact of weather on civil aviation capacity and high-speed rail passenger flow.In view of the civil aviation capacity,this paper analyzes the influence of bad weather on the abnormal rate of all departure flights and the possibility of abnormal state of specific flights on Beijing-Shanghai airline,which can provide some reference for airlines and airport operation departments to make decisions,so as to start emergency plans in time,rationally allocate service resources,and reduce unnecessary losses of passengers.On this basis,the short-term prediction method of high-speed rail passenger flow considering weather factors can help the railway operation department to adjust the high-speed rail transport capacity and ticket sales organization strategy in a timely manner,which plays an important role in improving the quality of railway passenger service and the efficiency of transportation operation.38 figures,20 tables,78 references.