Research On The Coupling And Coordinated Development Of Urbanization And Water Resources In Xinjiang

Since the 20 th century,with the continuous expansion of cities and towns around the world,the development and utilization of factor resources have been continuously strengthened,and resource constraints gradually become the “threshold” constraint for urban development.Water shortage is one of the more serious constraints.Xinjiang is extremely arid and dry,meanwhile it is now in an accelerated phase of urbanization.As a result,the increasing urban population will need larger water resources.It is of great significance to achieve the coupling coordinated development of urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang.But now,the coupling relationship between urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang is not clear.What are the optional models of urbanization of the future in Xinjiang? To achieve the coupling and development of urbanization and water resources,we still need to work out an effective optimize path and strategy.This thesis will study the coupling and coordinated development of urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang by literature research and metrology analysis from five aspects:(1)At the theoretical level,the coupling mechanism of urbanization and water resources is proposed.Urbanization promotes and coerces water resources,and water resources support and restrain the urbanization.Firstly,the urbanization system is divided into four subsystems: population urbanization,spatial urbanization,economic urbanization,and social urbanization.Secondly,the coupling mechanism of urbanization and water resources systems will be explained—population urbanization,spatial urbanization,economic urbanization,and social urbanization promote and stress the water resources system;Water resources system supports and restricts population urbanization,spatial urbanization,economic urbanization and social urbanization.(2)This thesis will analyze the urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang.Firstly,this thesis will analyze the development level of population urbanization,economic urbanization,spatial urbanization and social urbanization respectively,and then summarize the characteristics of urbanization in Xinjiang.Based on this,the thesis will explore the driving forces of urbanization and lay the foundation for the following research on the coupling and coordination of urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang from the aspects of basic water resources,supply and utilization status,and bearing capacity to analyze water resources in Xinjiang.(3)The thesis will discuss the dynamic correlation between urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang.It will mainly analyze the process and trend of interaction between urbanization and water resources from impulse response function by using VAR model,and use variance decomposition to analyze the degree of interaction between urbanization and water resources.The study shows that Xinjiang's urbanization and water resources have strong dynamic correlation and the process and trend of the interaction between them in different cycles are significantly different.But overall,urbanization in Xinjiang has a relatively smaller impact on water resources and water resources have a greater impact on the development of urbanization in Xinjiang.This has laid foundation for the analysis of the coupling and coordination of urbanization and water resources and exploration of the optimal development model of urbanization in Xinjiang under water resources constraints in the following parts of the thesis.(4)The thesis will explain coupling coordination between urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang.First of all,an evaluation index system for the coupling degree of urbanization and water resources is proposed.And then the comprehensive index,coupling degree and coupling coordination model are used to measure the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree between urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang,and the coupling between them coordinated comparisons are analyzed.The study finds that the degree of coordination between urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang show a tendency of upward fluctuation from 2000 to 2015,and the degree of coordination is changed from a disordered declining pattern to a well-coordinated pattern.The coordination of Xinjiang's various cities will be divided into two types: Urumqi and Karamay are medium-level coordination,and other cities and regions are primary coordination.Based on the analysis of the relationship between urbanization and water resources coupling and coordination,it is found that the relationship between the coupling of urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang has greatly changed from 2000 to 2015,and this change is from a severely lagging urban development to a slightly impaired resource bearing.In the future,urbanization in Xinjiang needs to further optimize the development model and abandon the development model that focuses only on urban expansion and ignores the water resources carrying capacity(WRCC),and further increase the attention to water resources constraints and water resources carrying capacity(WRCC),and try to avoid greater degree loss and damage of water resources.(5)The thesis will give suggestions on the choice of development model of urbanization in Xinjiang under the constraints of water resources.In the first place,we should build the future urbanization development model: the current model of maintenance,economic priority and intensive development.In the second place,we should build a system dynamics model to predict urban water demand under different development models in Xinjiang.In the third place,in conjunction with water supply,we should construct a model selection method to explore the optimal model of urbanization in Xinjiang under the threshold of water resources.The study believes that the intensive development model should be the main choice for the development of urbanization in Xinjiang's future.The water supply and demand situation will always show a surplus condition under this model in the future,and the supply of water resources can meet the demand in Xinjiang.The improvement of water use efficiency will reduce the rural water demand in the future and provide the possibility of increasing water use in cities and towns.Economic development will increase the urban water demand at a faster rate,but the increased demand will not increase the pressure on water supply,but rather to adjust the internal water structure under the existing supply level.At the same time,secondary and tertiary industries in cities and towns have greatly increased in this model.Taken together,the intensive development model has achieved less water demand than the current state-maintenance model and a larger increase of the secondary and tertiary industries,and the secondary industry's 10,000 yuan added value water consumption basically has reached requirements of goal planning----“13th Five-Year Plan” for the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Water Conservancy Development Planning.Therefore,the intensive development model should be the most suitable for the development of urbanization in Xinjiang.The above research results reveal the coupling and coordination relationship between urbanization and water resources in Xinjiang,put forward the development model of urbanization under the constraints of water resources in the future,and provide decision-making basis for achieving the coupling and coordinated development of them.