| China's regional financial centers have strong temporal and spatial characteristics,and by the internal "vital" inertia mechanism and external "survival" competition mechanism,these features are still in constant evolution.On the basis of reviewing relative theoretical and empirical research in detail,this thesis puts forward an analysis framework of the evolution mechanism of regional financial centers,and focuses on two key issues,namely,"how regional financial centers form and evolve”and "what their effects and corresponding evolution are".This thesis uses statistical models and methods such as the non-parametric model,the panel data model,the district transfer model and the Wilson model to explore the characteristics and trends of regional financial centers' self-organization evolution,driving force evolution and effect evolution,and then presents optimization strategy to the problems found.The main body of this thesis is divided into seven chapters.The specific arrangement and the main contents are as follows:From the perspective of regional financial centers' evolution process,chapter two defines relative concepts first,and then studies the basic theories.As a starting point,the concept of the regional financial center,evolution,and mechanism are defined,and the core theories of this thesis are put forward,i.e.,the evolution mechanism study of regional financial centers should follow the evolution process,according to the "vital" and the "survival" patterns of motion which includes two relatively independent and interrelated elements,namely,the formation mechanism and the effect mechanism of the regional financial center.The formation mechanism consists of the self-organization evolution and the driving force evolution,and the effect mechanism includes the agglomeration effect evolution and the radiation effect evolution.The third chapter makes a comprehensive evaluation of the development status of regional financial centers.According to the design principle of the regional financial center index system,using statistical comprehensive evaluation technique,sub-indexes of scale,structure and efficiency of regional financial centers and the general index are constructed to evaluate and analyze the basic features of regional financial centers.It is found that the evolution features of the constituent elements(three sub-indexes)of regional financial centers are different and characteristic.Meanwhile,the descriptive statistics among cities are variant.The coincidence degree of each financial center is not high,and the gradient changes are mainly in disorder.In Chapter four,the kernel density estimation and the correlation analysis techniques are employed to study the independent evolutionary and correlated evolutionary characteristics of regional financial centers in the process of self-organization evolution,which in content includes two aspects:on the one hand,it is the self-organization evolution of various subsystems and the whole system of regional financial centers,that is,their independent evolution;on the other hand,the association between the subsystems and the system as a whole is evolving over time.The empirical results show that the development scale of regional financial centers in China is stable and the difference of development structure is weakening,but the development efficiency is unstable and the spatial efficiency difference of regional financial centers is gradually expanding.At the same time,the correlation coefficient between the general index and the financial development scale index shows an upward trend,but the rising trend is not obvious;the correlation between the general index and the financial development structure index shows a decreasing trend;the correlation coefficient between the general index and the financial development efficiency index is on the rise.Chapter five uses the panel data model to study the evolution of the external driving force of regional financial centers.First,the external driving force of regional financial center is divided into three categories:location,economy and policy,and representative variables are selected to be validated;then,the single factor model,the multi-factor model and the interaction effect model are constructed according to the order of the unique driving force,the multi-driving force independent influence and the multi-driving force interaction influence,so as to analyze the law of the evolution driving force of regional financial centers.It is found that the evolution mechanism of the regional financial center is not driven by a single factor.The natural location and economic scale of the regional financial center have a significant joint driving effect on the evolution.The economic structure,information level and policy factors of regional financial centers are at present in the state of independent driving evolution.Chapter six focuses on the evolution of regional financial centers' agglomeration effect by using the Markov regime switching model.The direct display of regional financial centers' agglomeration effect is,through the demand-related and capital spillover effect,to maintain sustained total economic growth and continuous industrial structure optimization.A threshold panel data model is constructed between three threshold variables,namely,financial scale,structure and efficiency,and economic growth and industrial structure of regional financial centers.The empirical analysis shows that regional financial agglomeration has double threshold effect on economic growth and industrial structure,but the effect time is different.The effect of the three factors on economic growth and economic structure is different,and the intensity on economic growth is stronger than that on the economic structure.At the same time,the evolution of the three factors on economic growth and economic structure is different in time,and the evolution effects of various factors on economic growth are earlier than those on economic structure.In the seventh chapter,based on the theory of radiation effect of regional financial center,the Wilson model is constructed to measure the interaction degree among sample financial centers so as to get the radiation radius of each regional financial center.In general,the radiation radius of each regional financial center is increasing year by year;the radiation effect of different echelons is also gradually enhancing,but the changes within different echelons have some differences.The radiation range of the first echelon basically reaches the national level,and the total coverage is one-sixth of the country's acreage.From the dynamic evolution process of the radiation ability of the regional financial center,the annual growth rates of the three echelons' radiators all maintain at fast level.According to the development structure characteristics of regional financial centers,chapter eight proposed optimization strategies following the progressive phased development path as efficiency first,structural improvement,and moderate scale.According to the distribution structure characteristics of the regional financial center,an optimization strategy is put forward as the overall layout of the regional financial center which should be based on the national three regional strategies,focusing on integration,gradient development,dislocation and win-win.According to the driving force structure characteristics of the regional financial center,the optimization strategy of constructing and strengthening the compound driving force and constructing the personalized driving force structure is put forward. |
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