Driving Forces Analysis And Spatio-temporal Dynamic Simulation Of Land Use Patterns Evolution In Changchun

The evolution of land use pattern is of great significance to regional development.With rapid urbanization,the land use pattern has evolved drastically.Extensive and uncontrolled expansion of land use led to unbalanced human-land development and increasingly human-land conflict.Therefore,it is of great significance for coordinating the human-land relationship and promoting sustainable development to reveal the spatial evolution of land use pattern,exploring its driving mechanism,and predicting and simulating the future spatial of land use.Firstly,this study investigates the evolution of land use pattern by using the standard deviation ellipse model,gravity center model,land use dynamic,land-use conversion matrix,the comprehensive index of land use degree,and construction land development intensity.Secondly,this study analyzes the evolution of land use pattern driving mechanisms with the factor detector and the interaction detector of the geographical detector.Finally,based on the PLUS model,this paper carries out the spatio-temporal dynamic simulation of future land use spatial pattern under different scenarios in Changchun.This study obtains the following conclusions.From 2000 to 2018,the spatial pattern of land use showed the law of “proximity principle” as a whole,among the center of gravity of construction land moved to north,the center of gravity of arable land and water moved to the northeast,the center of gravity of forest land moved to the northwest,the center of gravity of grassland moved to the southwest,and the center of gravity of unused land moved to the south.In terms of quantity structure,the spatial pattern of land use showed an evolutionary characteristic of "three increases and three decreases",among the most significant characteristic is the decrease of arable land area and the increase of construction land area.The land-use intensity and the construction land development intensity showed an overall trend of increasing,and the spatial aggregation effect is obvious.Socio-economic factors are the leading factors promoting the evolution of land use pattern in Changchun,among which the distance from construction land plays the strongest driving role.Under different development scenarios,the evolution of land use pattern shows the characteristic of the decreasing of arable land and increasing of construction land area,only the magnitude of change is different.