Study On The Provincial Evolution Trend And Driving Mechanism Of China'S Low-Carbon Economy

China as a responsible country is committed to a low-carbon economy?LCE?evolution.It will cope with environmental pollution,climate warming and achieve emission reduction goals.China is a vast country,with great differences in economic and social development,resource endowments and environmental regulations in provincial.It is important to grasp the provincial heterogeneity of the LCE evolution,assess the path of LCE development.in different provinces and seek the key driving factors of the LCE evolution.All of these have important theoretical value and practical significance for the realization of China's LCE transformation and sustainable development.This study introduced carbon dioxide?CO₂?productivity as an indicator and combined with a multi-region input-output?MRIO?model to constructed an Economic-CO₂ evaluation system at the demand-side and supply-side,respectively.Using the above model to quantitatively analyze the provincial evolution trend of China's LCE.Furthermore,the typical provinces were screened based on the provincial evolution trend of the LCE.Then,this research adopted the demand-side and supply-side of MRIO subsystem model to pursue the LCE diffusion path in China.Furthermore,this study uses a panel data regression model to determine the significant influencing factors of the spillover-feedback effect,and used the three new factors of regional correlation strength,total CO₂ emissions of spillover-feedback effects and CO₂ productivity of the MRIO model to update the evaluation framework for rebound effects.It will provide a framework for finding key drivers in LCE transition.Based on the analysis of the above trends,driving factors and mechanism,this study proposes the development policy of LCE from the perspective of a single provincial and inter-regional coordinated development.It will promote China's early realization of a comprehensive LCE.The innovative results obtained in this study have the following three aspects:First,this research introduced CO₂ productivity indicator and combine it with economic influence and sensitivity to build a two-dimensional indicator for LCE evolution.It has improved the existing LCE analysis framework.Previous studies have only developed LCE evaluation frameworks based on individual provinces.These methods cannot reflect the interaction of LCE under the influence of inter-provincial association strength.Therefore,this study uses a MRIO model to combine inter-provincial economic influence coefficients and sensitivity coefficients with CO₂ productivity indicators.Construct a two-dimensional analysis framework of economic-CO₂ impact and economic-CO₂ sensitivity on the demand-side and supply-side.It will more comprehensively and systematically evaluate the provincial China's LCE evolution.Second,this research established MRIO subsystem models at the demand-side and supply-side to achieve a systematic evaluation in the path development of LCE evolution.Most of the existing IO subsystem studies only consider the perspective of the demand or supply,and no comparison two perspective.However,the provinces play the dual roles of consumers and producers in the economic system.The single-angle study ignores the distribution role of producers among provinces.Therefore,this study uses the traditional Leontief model and Ghosh model to construct the demand-and supply-side subsystem MRIO model.It studied the CO₂spillover-feedback trend of the provincial level in the LCE transition process from the demand-side and supply-side respectively.Third,the existing carbon rebound effect model that ignores the regions correlation LCE transition.In this research used the regional correlation index of MRIO model to construct a new rebound effect index.It provided a new perspective and a more systematic framework for previous research.The technological efficiency in a single province and the CO₂ emissions intensity are used as indicators for evaluating the driving factors in the traditional rebound effect evaluation framework.This neglects the changes in technological efficiency and the spillover and feedback of CO₂ emissions due to regional linkages.In addition,the CO₂ productivity takes CO₂ emissions as an input factor.It can measure the economic output of the province and can reflect the economic benefits brought by CO₂ reduction.Therefore,this study incorporates the regional correlation effect,uses the MRIO subsystem model and the panel data regression model to determine the significant influencing factors.The efficiency of CO₂ emissions has established a new framework for the assessment of resilience effects,and a more comprehensive and systematic assessment to determine the key driving factors and for the provincial LCE development.