Regional Land Use Evolvement And Simulation Research Driven By Sino-russian Border Trade

As the node and hub region uder the “The Belt and Road Initiative” policy of our country,border city’s unique advantages of spatial location continue to appear.Border trade has gradually become the main driving force of land use change.Facing the requirements of sustainable development under the new situation,it is of great practical significance to study the two-way interaction between land use change and border trade development.On the basis of field research,this paper takes Suifenhe-Pogranichnyy area as an example,Using spatial analysis of geographic information systems,typical correlation analysis,logistic regression analysis and mathematical statistics to reveal land use change of Suifenhe-Pogranichnyy area.The results analyze the impact of trade development on land use change and build a reasonable simulation model of land use change,Which can provide scientific basis for adjusting the economic structure and rational planning and utilization of land resources in the study area.The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on six periods of remote sensing image processing analysis,the spatial and temporal evolution of land use in Suifenhe-Pogranichnyy area was analyzed and compared from the land use average annual intensity change,land dynamic degree,land change intensity and tendency of three levels.The research shows that from 1990 to 2016,the intensity of regional land use showed a trend of increasing then decreasing finally increasing in the study period,which is coincided with the development of foreign trade.The main feature of land use change is the increase of construction land and the decrease of cultivated land in Suifenhe-Pogranichnyy area.Cultivated land is the main source of construction land,followed by woodland.Compared with the land use change between regions,it is found that the spatial changes of cultivated land and construction land in Pogranichnyy and Suifenhe city are convergent,and at the time level,the changes in the city of Suifenhe city lagged slightly behind Pogranichnyy.It shows that there is a strong consistency between inter regional trade and land use change and the land use change of the main trade export zones is prior to the main export areas.(2)The correlation between foreign trade and construction land change in Suifenhe is analyzed by SPSS software to establish a curve regression model.The correlation coefficient between construction land area and border trade is 0.938,which significance level is far less than 0.01.It shows that the total amount of construction land in Suifenhe has a positive correlation with the amount of border trade.As agricultural benefits compared to the tertiary industry benefits are poor,agricultural land,especially the number of cultivated land are decreasing significantly,woodland and water and other major environmental land are little changed.(3)Using typical correlation analysis and binary logistic regression model to establish a land use change driving force factor library combined with the trade situation.The relationship between land use change and driving factors was clarified on the basis of analyze the driving forces of land use change in Suifenhe city from the year of 1990 to 2000 and 2000 to 2013.Based on the analysis of the driving force of land use change in Suifenhe from the year of 2011 to 2016 on different spatial scales,the optimal spatial simulation scale was selected and made an accuracy test.(4)Set up three land use simulation scenarios according to Suifenhe city in different periods of foreign trade development and land use characteristics,which are rapid development of foreign trade scenario,smooth development of foreign trade scenario and bilateral reciprocity scenario.On the basis of constructing GM model to predict the demand for land use change and CLUE-S land use change model,the simulation forecast of the future land use pattern of Suifenhe city is realized.The results show that the land use structure is the most dramatic change in rapid development of foreign trade scenario,which the number of construction land transferred is 3641.76 hm2,and in bilateral reciprocity scenario the regional ecological risk is the highest as the ecological security index is 0.869.