Construction Project Risk Analysis Methods Based On Grey Fuzzy Linguistic Information

It is difficult for project manager to draw on enough similar project data because of the one-time nature of construction project and the complexity and uncertainty of construction process.They often need to rely on expert experience to give risk information to help risk analysis.However,risk information given by experts often shows grey,fuzzy and linguistic descriptive because of the fuzziness of experts’ thinking and the limitation of experts’ subjective judgment,work experience,knowledge level and understanding of construction project.In particular,the fuzziness of risk information cognized by experts is more positive,negative and hesitant with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of construction project.If these characteristics can not be expressed accurately,it will weaken the authenticity of construction project risk information expression,affect the accuracy of risk analysis results,reduce the ability of project managers to control risk and make construction project face more risk.In order to express risk information more comprehensively and authentically and improve the accuracy of risk analysis results,the research work in this paper is as follows:(1)Extension research on grey fuzzy linguistic theory.Through literature review,it is found that traditional risk analysis methods have some shortcomings in quantifying the grey,fuzziness and linguistic description of construction project risk information.It needs to introduce grey fuzzy linguistic theory to express construction project risk information more comprehensively and authentically.And then,it is found that current grey fuzzy linguistic theory still has some shortcomings in quantifying the “positive degree”,“negative degree” and “hesitant degree” in fuzziness of construction project risk information.It needs to further study grey fuzzy linguistic theory.Therefore,interval grey interval fuzzy uncertain linguistic set and its operation rules are defined based on interval grey fuzzy uncertain linguistic set and interval number.Interval grey intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set and its operation rules are defined based on interval grey uncertain linguistic set and intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set.Interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set and its operational rules are defined based on interval grey uncertain linguistic set and interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set.It is conducive to laying the theoretical foundation for developing risk analysis model.(2)Construction project risk identification based on grey fuzzy linguistic information.Potential construction project risk factors are sum up through literature review and expert interview.The hierarchical action relationship of these risk factors is analyzed.On this basis,interval grey interval fuzzy uncertain linguistic set,interval grey intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set and interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic set are used to express construction project risk information.Interval grey interval fuzzy uncertain linguistic ranking model based on C-OWA operator,interval grey intuitionistic uncertain linguistic ranking model based on C-OWA operator and interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic ranking model based on C-OWA operator are developed to rank risk factors concluded and find main risk factors.(3)Construction project risk assessment based on grey fuzzy linguistic information.The common action relationship of construction project risk factors concluded is analyzed.On this basis,grey fuzzy linguistic comprehensive assessment model and grey intuitionistic linguistic comprehensive assessment model are developed to predict construction project risk situation.The former includes comprehensive assessment model based on interval grey fuzzy uncertain linguistic weighted arithmetic average operator and comprehensive assessment model based on interval grey interval fuzzy uncertain linguistic weighted arithmetic average operator.The latter includes comprehensive assessment model based on interval grey intuitionistic uncertain linguistic weighted arithmetic average operator and comprehensive assessment model interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic weighted arithmetic average operator.(4)Construction project risk early-warning and control based on grey fuzzy linguistic information.Construction project risk early-warning index system is established on the basis of risk factors identification.Grey fuzzy linguistic early-warning model considering the time parameter and grey intuitionistic linguistic early-warning model considering the time parameter are developed based on construction projedct risk assessment models to early-warn risk at a given time.The former includes interval grey fuzzy uncertain linguistic early-warning model considering the time parameter and interval grey interval fuzzy uncertain linguistic early-warning model considering the time parameter.The latter includes interval grey intuitionistic uncertain linguistic early-warning model considering the time parameter and interval grey interval-valued intuitionistic uncertain linguistic early-warning model considering the time parameter.(5)Application based on grey fuzzy linguistic methods.Relying on “research on investment risk management and control technology of weft three road cross-river tunnel in Nanjing” project,an illustrative example called “weft three road cross-river tunnel in Nanjing” shows the feasibility of the developed models.The research results show that the developed ranking models are not only consistent with the ranking result of fuzzy hierarchical model and actual main risk factors,but also can comprehensively express construction project risk information and improve the authenticity and accuracy of risk identification results.The developed assessment models not only agree with the assessment result of fuzzy hierachical model and actual risk situation,but also can gradually provide new reference basises for judging risk situation and improve the accuracy of risk assessment results.Although the developed early-warning models are slightly biased with the early-warning result of fuzzy hierarchical model,the membership degree values of “the bigger risk” and “the biggest risk” are very close in fuzzy hierarchical model.So the developed early-warning models are still consistent with the early-warning result of fuzzy hierarchical model.It is concluded that it is feasible to use the developed models for construction project risk identification,risk assessment and risk early-warning,and they have certain advantages.