Research On Risk Management Of Hydropower Engineering Project Based On Gray Fuzzy Theory

A successful hydropower project could promote social and economic in the project site. However hydropower project has several characteristics such as large-scale investment, long construction period and high technically demanding, and could influence greatly by external economic environment and natural condition, so it has risk. In the meanwhile, the risk management system is not perfect and mature in our country, so the research on risk assessment of hydropower engineering project is meaningful.The risk of hydropower engineering project is what this article studied, first, this paper introduced the definition and characteristics of risk, and elaborate related theory of risk assessment for the risk characteristics, and explained the definition and process of risk assessment. On this basic, this article analyzed the main risk of hydropower engineering project combining the hydropower engineering characteristics.The chapter three identified the risk of hydropower engineering project, focus on analyzing the four stages of pre-project decision-making, preparation of project implementation, construction process, and project operation and management according the stages of project, built the indicators of risk assessment about hydropower engineering project.After a brief introduction of several risk assessment method, we concluded that there had some defects on the hydropower engineering project by these separated methods. In order to guarantee the rational and scientific risk assessment model for hydropower engineering project, this paper built the risk assessment model of hydropower engineering project according to Analytic Hierarchy Process, Gray System Theory and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. In this model, the risk weights is decided by Analytic Hierarchy Process, the gray is decided by Gray System Theory, and the comprehensive evaluation scores is decided by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method. Evaluating the risk of Xiao Wan hydropower by this model, this paper got the score result, proved that this assess model is rational and scientific by comparing the actual project.In the end, this paper proposed the corresponding risk coping strategies according to different risk level, so this paper has some reference value for risk assessment of hydropower engineering project.