The Research On Risk Assessment Of Construction Engineering Project Based On Grey-Fuzzy Theory

With the rapid development of China’s national economy, investment of Chinese construction engineering project maintains a rapid growth, which occupies an important position in the China’s national economy. Owing to the dramatic increase of Chinese construction engineering project in quantity and scale, the organizational structure and mode of production of the construction industry becomes more and more complicated. In addition, it is difficult to control the project because of the long construction period and complicated relations in safety, quality, schedule and cost. Due to all kinds of problems and uncertainty in the implementation of construction engineering project, the risk management of construction project becomes particularly important. Therefore, there is an urgent need to create a systematic risk management theory and methods for risk identification, risk assessment and risk control.Based on a large number of domestic and foreign studies, this thesis elaborates the status of construction engineering project risk management and assessment method, and then compares and analyzes the applicability of the current risk assessment method and its merits and demerits. With the combination of the consideration of all kinds of common assessment methods and the fuzzy and gray characteristics of construction engineering project risk assessment, the author improves the traditional assessment method and proposes the assessment method of the intersection of Fuzzy Set Theory and Grey System Theory. This assessment method is based on the assessment mode of Grey-Fuzzy Theory to evaluate the risk level of construction engineering project.With construction engineering project as the object, this thesis elaborates the related theories of risk assessment at first, which involve Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), cluster analysis theory, Fuzzy Set Theory and Grey System Theory, and particularly studies the mechanism of each influencing factor in Chinese construction engineering project on the basis of the analysis of the main influence factors and establishes the index system for construction project risk assessment. And then, the author constructs the risk assessment method based on Grey-Fuzzy Theory and elaborates its evaluation steps in details. In the end, the author takes a specific real estate project as an example to analyze the risk factors and risk level of the project by adopting the assessment method of Grey-Fuzzy Theory, and obtains the result of the level of risk and puts forward some measures to deal with the risk.