Research On Method And Theory For Grey Assessment Of Dam Failure Risk

Based on disaster science, theory of assessment of the geological risks, theory of system science, system dynamics, integrated with knowledge of hydropower engineering, with the adoption of grey system theory, this thesis sets up patterns of assessment of risks, and develops a comprehensive assessment system. This thesis attaches much attention to interdisciplinary and integrity, its result can be a reference to the research of later-on assessment of dam risks, and its system can be applied to practice.The train of thoughts and the result of this thesis is as follows:A lot of research references are consulted and the present state of the research on the assessment of dam risks both home and abroad, the focus of the research today and in the future are mastered and the updating of the research methodology is conducted, so that the overall research state, the aim and the significance of this research can be maintained.To collect and analyze official statistics, including types, time, and causes of the dam-break; to find the law that lies behind the dam-break, which provides reference for the later-on establishment of the modulus of the assessment of dam risks.To make full analysis of the dams that have collapsed and have not so as to find out the underlying causes, such as osmosis, structure and floods and to sort out the patterns of dam-break, with which and integrated with hazard inducing environment, hazard, disaster-bearing capacity, to find out the final modulus of dam-break risks.To establish the models of the modulus of dam-break risks with the theory of grey assessment, which are mainly based on the coarse grained, medium grained, and fine grained. As shortage of statistics of dams and difference of purposes of assessment are considered, three models are established. When there are few assessment statistics, assessment of modulus of the first level will be made; when there are detailed statistics, comprehensive assessment of modulus of all levels will be made. Therefore, with three models, this assessment will be applied more widely.Establish grey assessment system by making programs. With the adoption of programming language, this research is available for various kinds of managing personnel.In conclusion, the establishment of the modulus of the assessment of the dam-break risks, the theory of grey assessment of risks and different ways of setting up models with different grains are of great significance for the later-on research on the assessment of dam-break risks. This thesis makes assessment not only on the hazard inducing environment, hazard, and disaster-bearing capacity, but also on the casualty, and economical and environment loss of the downstream caused by dam-break.