Simulation Of Low Carbon Urban Transport Policies Based On Empirical Analysis Of Citizen Travel

Rapid increase of urban transport demand has been one of the important driving factors of China's carbon emissions in transport sector.Low carbon urban transport policy making relies on researches to assess and forecast policy effects.However,the effect of these policies relies on individual behavioral responses.Only when enough number of individuals change their behaviors and choices,then transport emissions at the aggregate level can be reduced.Therefore,the basis of assessing and forecasting policy effects is to analyze individual behavioral response.This study aims to analyze individual behavioral responses under the influence of low carbon urban transport policy,and then quantitatively assess the carbon mitigation effects of low carbon urban transport policy.Beijing is chosen as the city for case study because the study of Beijing can provide valuable lessons for other cities.Three policies are selected for carbon mitigation effects assessment,including public transport improving policy,public bike policy,and electric vehicle development policy,because these three polices have large low carbon development potential and fit with the direction of China's urban city development.An assessment methodology has been built and its core part is a micro-simulation model.It is found that by comprehensively implementing public transport improvement,public bike promotion,motor vehicle carbon emission factor reduction and electric vehicle development policies,Beijing's daily travel carbon emissions can be reduced by43%?ranges from 32%to 55%?,which is about 4.3 million tonnes of CO₂ per year?ranges from 3.2⁵.5 million tonnes?.The combined effects of multiple polices are smaller than the sum of individual policy effects.Public transport improving policy and public bike policy together can achieve 24%reduction in daily travel carbon emissions.In terms of electric vehicle development,by comprehensively strengthening the multiple measures of electric vehicle promotion,synergies between different measures can be realized and the electric vehicle penetration can pass the beginning flat period of the S-shaped technology penetration curve more rapidly.In 2025,electric private vehicles in Beijing can reach 1.04 million?18.4%of total private vehicles in Beijing?under the most optimistic scenario,which is 6.4%higher than the baseline scenario.