Research On Low-carbon Urban Transportation Strategy And Environmental Benefit Assessment

The transportation sector is a critical component of social and economic development and an essential contributor for energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions.With the rapid development of China’s transportation sector,the rapid growth of fuel oil consumption has brought tremendous pressure on the sustainable development of the natural environment and national energy security and has also brought enormous challenges to alleviate and adapt to climate change.Therefore,China urgently needs the low-carbon development of transformation,creating a good development environment and constructing a scientific and rational policy package,intending to find a clean and low-carbon development road to ensure the green,healthy and sustainable development of the economy and society.Targeting at the national strategic demands of tackling climate change and international frontiers of low-carbon transportation policy research,this thesis focused on the development path of low-carbon transportation and its environmental benefits.Applying operational research,statistics,econometrics,input-output analysis,and bibliometrics,this thesis conducts some works from the national macro-strategic level and micro-behavior level based on the operational big data of transportation.The avoid strategy,shift strategy and improve strategy in low carbon transportation have been taken into consideration.Moreover,we conduct the strategic research and environmental impact assessment from the perspective of urban road network design,shift travel mode as well as the improvement of fuel economy as follows:（1）From the perspective of urban road network planning,based on quantitative traffic modeling,this section explores the block size’s impact on urban traffic conditions and the environmental benefits under different scenarios.Besides this research provides quantitative research methods and theoretical basis for future low-carbon city planning by combining road network planning and environmental impact.Through quantitative traffic modeling,simulation algorithms are used to explore the impact of block size on traffic conditions.Based on this goal,the study includes the following contents:surveying the traffic flow distribution and traffic congestion of cities;exploring the vehicle mileage（VMT）and driving time in cities;calculating the energy consumption and air pollution emission in different blocks size.The results show that there is a close relationship between block size and traffic flow.Moreover,the larger block size is more likely to cause traffic congestion and will increase 24.8%of the vehicle travel mileage and 14.4%of the travel time.Concerning energy consumption and environmental protection,the big block is not conducive to the sustainable development of low-carbon transportation.Therefore,the main result of this section suggests that the size of the block plays an essential role in the formation of traffic conditions.Urban planners must consider the relationship between block size and environmental benefits when deploying urban road networks in the future.（2）From the perspective of alternative travel modes,in the context of“Internet+Big Data”and“Sharing Economy”,this section explores the travel characteristics of ridesharing and the environmental benefits,as well as the impact of ridesharing on consumer purchase behavior choices in the future.This research integrates the first-hand orders and aggregate data of ridesharing in the geographic information system,identifies its travel characteristics,quantifies potential energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits,and groundbreakingly explores its role of promoting the new energy vehicle from the ridesharing perspective.The results show that ridesharing mainly meets the daily commuting needs of users,and there are obvious morning and evening peaks.The services are mostly long and mid-distance travels between central and surrounding urban areas.Besides,the Life Cycle Analysis Model of Fuel and environmental Input-Output Model are applied to estimate the direct and indirect environmental impact separately.The results of direct and indirect impacts on the environment induced by ridesharing are significantly positive.Specifically,about 208.1 thousand tce of energy saving,650.7 thousand tons of CO₂,325.8 ton of primary PM2.5,1220.2 tons of SO2 and 1527.2 tons of NOx emission reductions,could be achieved in BTH region every year.Then this paper explores the influence of the new energy vehicle purchasing behavior of customers after they are using the service of ridesharing services offered by new energy vehicles by the Discrete Choice Model.Research shows that the ride experience of the electric car can significantly change consumers’willingness to buy electric cars.Among the many reasons for changing consumers’willingness to purchase electric vehicles,income levels are the most critical factor.As the level of education increases,respondents are more willing to purchase new energy vehicles in the future.Besides,for young female respondents,the choice of purchasing an electric car is likely to change for the experience of electric cars in the sharing mobility.（3）From the perspective of improving vehicle fuel economy,this part of the study aims at the development and promotion of new energy vehicles.An AHP-EW is established to quantitatively evaluate the development level of the new energy vehicle industry in different countries and different policy systems.In addition,using the Life Cycle Analysis Model of Fuel,this paper conducts a quantitative analysis of battery electric vehicles in Beijing,based on which we forecast the battery electric vehicles’performance in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction,as well as provide insights into the development path and the policy-making for the industry accordingly.The results indicate that the developing level of the U.S.,Japan,Germany,and China are different,with China ranking the second and has a high probability of"curve overtaking"other countries in the future.Besides,the results show that the promotion of new energy vehicles can significantly reduce energy consumption and air pollutant emissions.Individually,from July 2012 to November 2015,Beijing’s electric taxis has saved 7.102 million kgce and reduced 5369.5 tons of CO2 in total.From January 2014 to November 2015,electric buses have saved 468 thousand kgce and reduced 20.7%of CO2.Then,the electric sanitation vehicle has saved 22.9%of energy and saved 17.7%of CO2.The strategic analysis and environmental benefit assessment model constructed in this paper are helpful for the development of low-carbon transportation in urban or regional areas.This could offer some policy evidence for the construction of low-carbon transport and making energy saving and emission reduction policy in this sector.