Research Of Policy Choice Method For Urban Low-carbon Transport

Global Climate Change has caused serious damage on human ecological environment,how to deal with this problem has become an important issue in today’s world. In numerousfactors contributing to climate change，carbon dioxide，as the main driving force of climatechange, has received extensive attention of the world. As the largest developing country, ourcountry has been rapidly developed, the contradiction between economic development andecological environmental protection is increasing day by day and the prominent performanceof this contradiction is on the issue of urban traffic and environment. With the leap-forwarddevelopment of urban motorization, carbon emissions of urban traffic are sharply rising.Urban traffic low-carbon development, as a long-term strategy, has been the inevitablerequirement of urban sustainable development. Taking reasonable policy measures is the keyto the development of urban low-carbon transport. This paper aims to build scientific andeffective system of urban low-carbon transport policy choice method, and provide scientificguidance for decision-making of urban low-carbon transport development.Urban low-carbon transport is affected by social and economic development, urban scale,the residents’ living standards, transportation structure, transportation efficiency and manyother factors, carbon emissions is related to various departments of transportation, theresearch on urban low-carbon transport policy is accurate analysis on these factors, bychoosing appropriate policies, making these policies acted on each department, which affectsthe carbon emission of urban traffic. This paper has analyzed the various factors affecting thedevelopment of urban low-carbon transport, and has built a set of scientific and effectivesystem of low carbon policy choice theory based on the LEAP model theory, using thescenario analysis, integrated weight method and cluster analysis. Firstly, urban low-carbontransport policy choice for scenario analysis is the premise and foundation of policyevaluation. This paper choose policies from the following two aspects: on the one hand,according to the influence on policy choices of important factors, this paper use integratedweight method with the combination of principal component analysis and grey relationalanalysis to evaluate the importance of the factors reflecting urban low-carbon transport, choose policies according to the importance of the factors; on the other hand, according to thepolicy’s similarity of similar cities, using cluster analysis method and gray system theory,choosing policies according to the experience of similar advanced cities；then collect thesepolicies based on importance, similarity and advancement. Secondly, analyze theeffectiveness of these policies. Calculate carbon emissions based on LEAP model, setdifferent scene according to the policies, analyze and compare all the situation of carbondioxide emissions, determine the optimal policy model. Finally, take Xi’an as an example,verify the scientific and effectiveness of the policy choice theory. The research results of thispaper provide scientific and objective reference for middle-long term urban low-carbontransport policy choice.