Research On Cause Mechanism Of Road Traffic Accidents With At Least10Fatalities And Its Risk Behaviors

In recent years, the trend of road traffic safety in China is generally stable, but roadtraffic accidents with mass casualties occur from time to time, which brings great negativeimpact to economy society and people s life. At present, the publishing research achievementsof road traffic accidents are very much, but the research achievements of accidents with masscasualties is very few. There are no clear answers yet whether accidents with mass casualtiesare only the simple enlargement of general accidents, its inherent mechanism of accidentcause has, and special risk factors exist or not. The in-depth research on cause mechanism ofroad traffic accidents with at least10fatalities and its risk behaviorshas important theoretical value and practical meaning to improve relevance and effectivenessof accident prevention.The paper discusses seveal issues on the influence factors, evolution process, human riskbehavior and risk behavioral decision of road traffic accident with at least10fatalities, on thebasis of theory and method in various discipline including system theory, safety engineering,traffic engineering, risk management, statistics and so on.The characteristic differences and significant influence factors of road traffic accidentwith at least10fatalities are analyzed. A number of accident statistical indictors are used todescribe the accident characteristics at the stage of accident outbreak and precursory, and toelaborate the characteristic differences between multi-vehicle accidents and single-vehicleaccidents, between commerial vehicle accidents and non-commerial vehicle accidents, so asto find out the explanatory variables affecting accident frequency. Considering distributioncharacteristics of accident data, random-parameters negative binomial (NB) regression modelis used to study the relationship between accident frequency and the influence factors, suchas driver behavior, road structure and so on. The results show that the proportion of truck,improper operation, speeding, abnormal weather and the proportion of national highway andprovincial highway are found to have a significant impact on accident frequency.Based on fault tree analysis of typical accident case, the timed petri net model ofaccident with mass casualties is built, and S invariant method on the basis of incidencematrix is used to validate the rationality of the model; According to different properties ofmodel parameter, the transition probability value is determined using two ways betweenenterprise accident statistics and safety assessment, and the place probability value iscalculated by fuzzy rule. On this basis, a diagnosis algorithm of accident risk chain based onbacktracking is proposed to identify the critical risk paths of transport enterprises. According to contrastive analysis of safety risk situation of road transportation enterprises betweenhappened accident and no accident, the differences on the risk value of critical path in twoset of enterprise is significant.Given the high-risk characteristics of man-made risks, the paper analyzesthe impact mechanism of people’s unsafe behavior on safety behavior performance intransport enterprises with mass casualty accidents. Based on previous research, driver sunsafe behaviors questionnaire and safety manager s unsafe behaviors questionnaire aredesigned, and unsafe behavior index is introduced to build structural equation model ofunsafe behavior and its behavior performance. The description statistical analysis,reliability and validity analysis of survey data and fitting test of the proposed model arecarried out by SPSS software and AMOS software. The influence path and influence degreebetween people’s unsafe behaviors and behavior performance is determined. The resultsshow that the dimensions of driver’s unsafe behavior on safety behavior performance intransport enterprises with mass casualty accidents has significant difference, and theinfluence effect that observation variables to driver s unsafe behaviors is inconsistent withgeneral driver’s privious research conclusion; the dimensions of safety manager’s unsafebehavior on safety behavior performance in transport enterprises with mass casualtyaccidents has significant difference.The risk decision optimization problem of road traffic accident at least10fatalities isdiscussed from external and internal aspects. According to the analysis of system riskstructure, accident costs and violation costs are introduced to the profit function of theparticipants. A variational inequality model of the network equilibrium and the projectionalgorithm of variable steps are designed to quantify the change relation between people’sbehavior decision and accident risk rate. Overloading is discussed as the research object, andthe results show that the overloading rate is greater than0, which is the chronic disease ofcurrent road transport network, and the precondition of lowering overload accident rate is togive a certain profit space for three parties including the shipper, the carrier and the manager.In internal environment, the cost-benefit analysis method is used to analyze the participants’risk behavior decision-making, and the transformation conditions among safety risk in theenterprise internal environment are defined.