Research On Evaluation And Adjustment Of Complex System On Sustainable Development Of Coal Cities

Coal resource accounts up 90% of Chinese primary energy, and its real consumption accounts up to over 70%. The objective conditions entitle coal the important position in Chinese national economy, and make certain the primary energy structure unchanged which is dominated by coal resource. With the coal prospecting and exploration, a lot of coal cities were established, which take important positions in Chinese city system with particular characteristics and development rules, whether in the aspects of positioning conditions, growing mechanism, or in the industrial structure, regional structure, population structure, and environmental structure, etc. Coal cities are the type of cities most influenced by the plan economy, which encounter serious problems with wide public concern in the transition process from plan economy to market economy.This paper pays Chinese coal cities as research target, analyzes the present situation of coal city development, takes system science as oriented, employs system science methodology to make comprehensive discussion on the issues of structure, characteristics, objectives, and evolvement process of coal city sustainable development complex system, and designs a set of indicator system, evaluation model system, and systematic dynamics simulation and control model system suitable to Chinese coal city sustainable development.The indicator system starts from the denomination of coal city sustainable system, and designs four rule levels of population, resource, economy and environment, including 33 indictors. The model system includes:(1) Projection pursuit-based coal city sustainable development level evaluation model; (2) Composite DEA-based coal city sustainable development capability evaluation model; (3) Coordinate function-based coal city development coordination evaluation model. On the basis of systematic synthetic evaluation, the paper employs system dynamics method to establish the systematic dynamics model of coal city sustainable development, and through systematic dynamics simulation and control, explores the fundamental systematic evolvement process of coal cities in different phases, and provides scientific evidence for the research of effective coal city control mechanism. After the theoretic research, the paper takes Jixi, a typical coal city, as example, to make an empirical research. The results of the empirical research show that the synthetic evaluation indicator system, model system, and dynamics simulation and control system of coal city sustainable development are scientific, objective, and feasible.