Dynamic Modeling And Analysis Of The Land Use And Land Cover Changes In Shanghai Based On Cellular Automata

Human activities have profound impacts on the Earth surface environment, and human survival and development have also influenced by the feedbacks from the Earth system. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is a major direct result of human activities, especially in the urban areas. Therefore, the study of urban LUCC can provide the historical, current and future trend information to the city managers, and provide theoretical guidance for the sustainable development of the city. In this dissertation, Shanghai was selected as the study area since it has experienced a period of rapid urbanization resulting in considerable land use and land cover changes. The historical land use datasets for the period of1990-2005were analyzed to better understand the driving forces of spatial patterns and land-use change in Shanghai. In addition, the Dinamica EGO model, which is a stochastic cellular automata model, was introduced to study the urban land use change process. Based on the Dinamica EGO model, a new dynamic LUCC model for Shanghai has been developed. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:1) To better understand the driving forces of spatial patterns and land use and land cover change in Shanghai, the historical land use datasets were analyzed through four aspects, such as driving forces, transition matrix, spatial and landscape patterns, providing the basis for the establishment of the LUCC dynamic model.2) A dynamic model was developed to simulate land use/cover changes caused by the Shanghai urbanization process. By modifying the structure and parameters of the Dincamica model, a new land use/cover change dynamic model for Shanghai has been successfully developed. In this new model, the driving forces are categorized into two types:statistic and dynamic. Furthermore, a set of parameters, such as driving forces, transition rates, mean path areas and the ratio of Expander and Patcher functions were locally refined to solve the spatial heterogeneity problem, which improved the accuracy of the model.3) The simulated results from the new model were validated by the observed data. We evaluated the model results at total and sub-region levels, and major land-use types. The study indicated that this model can capture the spatial pattern of the land use and land cover changes in Shanghai.4) In this dissertation, we predicted the spatial pattern of the land use and land cover of Shanghai in2020under diverse scenarios to explore how land use and land cover will change under different urban growth models.The original work in this dissertation includes:1) The Dinamica EGO model was introduced to simulate the urban land use change process of Shanghai. By modeling the structure and parameters, a new model was developed for Shanghai, and satisfied simulation results were obtained by using this model.2) The distance to the coastline is used as statistic driving force to improve the simulation of shoals changes of Shanghai.3) A set of parameters, such as driving forces, transition rates, mean path areas and the ratio of Expander and Patcher functions etc. were locally refined to solve the spatial heterogeneity problem, which improved the accuracy of the model.