Simulation Of Land Use Changes In Dongtai Coastal Reclaimed Area With Dynamic Shorelines

With the continuous growth of population and the rapid economic development of our country,the contradictions caused by lack of land resources are increasing.The demands for land have become extremely sharp.In the process of land development and utilization,how to adhere to the concept of ecological civilization,properly deal with the existing land conflicts,improve the use of effective land planning and achieve the protection of the ecological environment is essential.Tidal flats are an important land and space resource.Reclamation is capable of creating abundant land to alleviate the pressure from land shortages and maintain the balance of land occupied.Based on the dynamic simulation model of coastline,Cellular Automata and Multi-Agent model,this paper analyzed the land use of the coastal reclamation area with taking into account the dynamic changes of the coastline,which idea can provide advice for the coastal reclamation area reasonable planning development and utilization.The main research contents and conclusions are drawn as follows.(1)Dynamic simulation of coastlineThe seven historical coastlines of study areas were extracted from the remote sensing data from 1985 to 2014,and the control points were extracted by the Digital Coastline Analysis System based on the historical coastline data.The change rate of the coastline was obtained at control points.According to the rate of control points,entire coastline moves seaward to simulate the coastline dynamic change.A random fractal algorithm was applied to diversify the coastline between the control points to simulate a more realistic coastline.(2)Simulation of land use changes in a coastal reclaimed area with dynamic shorelinesThe coastline moves seaward according to control points every year.Land on the left of the coastline converts to tidal flats,while the right of it is eroded by ocean.Based on the data of land use in 2000,combined with Cellular Automata and Multi-Agent model,the land use change in 2010 was simulated in study area.In comparison with simulation results that doesn't consider the expansion of tidal flats,the Kappa coefficient estimated with considering the dynamic growth of tidal flats is improved from 65.9%to 70.5%.Spatial overlay verification also shows that the simulation results are better than not consider the expansion of tidal flats.(3)Land use change prediction in coastal reclaimed areaBased on the above model,the land use data of 2010 was used to predict the land use change in 2020 and 2030,and the forecast results were analyzed.Combined with the previously extracted four land use data,the future land use change tend was forecasted,which maybe can play a decisive assistant role to be ulitized by local land planning and management decision-making.