A Modelling Study Of Cellular Automata On Urban Land Use And Land Cover Changes

LUCC is now recognized internationally as being one of the most interesting researchtopics. During the research of LUCC, the study on urban LUCC is getting more attentions byresearchers due to its rapid development and expansion of cities. So the author focuses theLUCC of Qingdao downtown using cellular automata model in this dissertation to modelingthis cities' character.1. Digitizing the topographic maps of Qingdao downtown with vector GIS format,symbolized in three years as 1980,1990 and 2000. Classifying the land into 6 classes includingconstruction sites, agricultural land, water, roads, unused land and sea area.2. Based on two known LUCC CA model, the mathematical statistical model and urbangrowth model. A new improved and adjusted model on urban growth is established based onCA model according to the characters of Qingdao.3. Modeling the land changing of Qingdao downtown using the mathematical statisticalmodel based on CA. Counting the total areas of different land utilization types in 3 periods andthen calculating shift probability matrix respectively. Meanwhile, deriving the new shiftprobability matrix considering these two factors of the increases of population and economythat takes leading roles in the construction land. Then simulating the land changing of Qingdaodowntown in 2010 and get rather ideal effect.4. Simulate the land changing of Qingdao downtown using the improved urban growthmodel based on CA. Carry it out in Visual Basic6.0 according to certain conversion regulation.Simulate the land changing of Qingdao downtown in 2010 and get rather ideal effect.5. Analysing the instances of the land changing of Qingdao downtown obtained by thesetwo models and getting several conclusions. The construction sites area is increasing; theagricultural land area is decreasing; the growth of construction sites grows more quickly alongthe coastline.The paper is supported by Open Research Fund Program of the Key Laboratory ofGeomatics and Digital Technology, Shandong Province "The theory and method of urbanLUCC modeling based on neural network "(SD060805).