| L Province is the only coastal province in Northeast China with the coastline of 2732 km, in which the mainland coastline,with the length of 2110 kilometers, starts from Yalu River in the east and west to the Liao-Ji boundary, accounting for 12% of the national mainland coastline; the island coastline is 622 kilometers, accounting for 4.4% of the total length of the national island coastline. As the the center of Northeast Asia,there are six ports in L Province,which are L port, Y port, D port, J port, P port and H port. It adjoins Korea in the east,near to Russia, South Korea and Japan. With the exceptional advantageous of resource, it is the most convenient overseas gateway for domestic and foreign trade of three northeast provinces and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia area.Although the shipping industry of L Province has been stimulated by those polices for developing Northeast Asian International Shipping Centre and L Province Coastal Economic Belt, there is still a comparatively large gap between the development level of L Province shipping industry and that of other relatively mature shipping centers. Facd with the complex and volatile international environment, some grave problems, such as how to break those potential obstruction, how to identify the bottlenecks in the development process of L Province shipping industry, and how to propose policies to encourage the industry development, which have really became very important research directions. However, the development of shipping industry is a very complicated systemic problem. Most existing literatures only focused on some detailed questions because of the limitation of data or methods. Therefore, on the basis of a great amount of relative data collected by the author, this paper introduces the current situation of L Province shipping industry development, analyzes the correlative problems from the perspective of government, and finally presents a few novel advices on how to stimulate the develop of L Province shipping industry.Shipping industry consists of port industry and shipping industry. This paper firstly investigates and analyzes the developing process of several famous shipping centers at home and abroad, reviews a few basic theories involving shipping industry development, port inter-generation, shipping market cultivation and container liner itinerary. Thereafter, this paper researches forecasting methods and forecasts the changes of several important indexes about shipping industry development, such as cargo throughput, freight rate and so on, with a combined quantitative and qualitative model. Based on these forecasting results, this paper adopts PEST, SWOT, modified DEA, and AHP to analyze the present situation of L Province shipping industry. Then constructing evaluating indexes system with FCA. In the end, based on the systematic investigation and analysis on successful experience of shipping service home and aborad and potential obstruction, this paper presents eight major tasks for L Province shipping industry,such as coordinated development of port and city, the construction of green shipping industry, information ship industry and legal ship industry etal.The research result shows that the key of the development of L Province shipping industry lies in four aspects:1) it is important for L Province ports to achieve the ports’ coordinated development,2) it is vital for port logistic to establish public logistic information system,3) it is considerable for shipping industry to encourage the upgrade of ship fleet and the innovation of high-end shipping service industries, and 4) it is essential for shipping line planning of container liner. The main contributions of this paper are to propose the development goals of L Province shipping industry, to distinguish those key works and to introduce several novel policy advices, which can provide useful reference for future researches. Also, this paper is of significant importance for the achievement of waterway transportation modernization of L Province in 2020.
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