Research On Combined Forecasting Model And Apply In Power Load Forecasting

Power load forecasting is the basis of planning and operation of electric power system. It is also an important part of electric power market performing. In the course of electric power marketing, the accuracy of power load forecasting is directly related to the interests of all parties. Currently, there are a lot of models for power load forecasting. Only one model cannot totally reflect the changing rules and information of power load. Combination model of load forecasting has been a new directing of developing research.This paper introduces the fundamental theory of Combined forecasting first, especially ascertaining the weight of Combined forecasting .On the basis of this, adopt universally the power load forecast two kinds unitary forecasts model at present. Applying time series analyze,BP neural networks forecast,combined forecasting theory carry out a forecast on our country power load and analyze comparison, finding out a model of the most suitable power load data in many combined forecasting models. Through this combined forecasting model, we can forecast our country electric power generation future years, providing the scientific basis for the electric power strategy and the policy formulation.