Impact Of Forward Spillover Effect Of Productive Service Trade On TFP Of Manufacturing Industry Of China

China has become a super country in manufacturing, whose manufactured goods production and exports ranked first in the world. But the production of our country mainly depends on material means and compared with developed countries, the productivity is still relatively low and competitive needs further promotion. The promotion of TFP in manufacturing can’t do away from the development of productive service industry to achieve alone, because the productive service industry mainly provides intermediate goods and services for manufacturing, which is an important component part of its cost. But nowadays, no matter in terms with quantity or quality, the development of our productive service industry could not keep up with the rising demand of manufacturing. Therefore, it is necessary to study our imported productive service industry and discuss whether forword spillover effect of productive service trade had a positive effect on productivity of our manufacturing, which has great significance on the upgrade of manufacturing and development of productive service industry.The research contents of this paper are these following points:Ⅰ. On the basis of organizing the literature, this paper states the mechanism that spillover effect of productive service trade affects TFP of manufacturing industry and thinks the former affect the latter by trade complementarity effect, trade competition effect, value chain effect, the effect of scale economy, the effect of human capital and the effect of the evolution of Industrial Synergy.Ⅱ. This paper analyses the status of our productive service industry trade. In terms of total numbers, there is no the phenomenon that as one falls, another rises between the producer service cross-border trade and the commercial presence, but is a synchronous rapid development of the situation, which the development of commercial presence is much faster. However, the size of cross-border trade is much larger than the commercial presence. The proportion of the two in their respective areas are more than half, but in the proportion of the national economy is very small; the traditional service trade accounted for a large proportion of productive service trade, the proportion of emerging service trade is small, but the speed of emerging service trade is faster than the conventional; besides two kinds of service trade reflect a certain complementary.Ⅲ. This paper researches interactive status of our manufacturing and productive service industry by using the method of inputs and outputs and then finds:(Ⅰ) Our manufacturing is "high pull type" industry and is an important force to promote the development of other sectors of the national economy, but compared with other countries, the added value per capita of China is relatively low and international competitiveness is still relatively weak; (Ⅱ) Our productive service industry develops very quickly and its position in the national economy is gradually rising. However, our productive service industry is the typical industry with high added value and low pull, which means the pulling effect on other departments of national economy is relatively small; although the main demand object of productive service is the second industry, the proportion of the total inputs in the manufacturing is not high; (Ⅲ) Whether from the perspective of inputs or from the consumption, the degree that our manufacturing is fused to the productive service industry are greater than the degree of productive service industry integrated in manufacturing level; our productive service industry are significantly dependent on manufacturing, but the latter is not significantly dependent on the former; the symbiotic relationship between these two industries are changing to balanced fusion.Ⅳ. Using DEA built by Fare, Malmquist index method measured the change of TFP of all 30 industries in our manufacturing from 2001 to 2013. Then we can find that in most years the majority of manufacturing productivity is rising and the improvement of technological progress and technical efficiency jointly promote the upgrade of TFP in manufacturing, which the the effect of technical progress is bigger.Ⅴ. This paper empirically analyzes the influence of spillover effect of productive service trade on China manufacturing through using panel data and STATA12. At first, by researching the influence of spillover effect of productive service trade on the total TFP on manufacturing, we can find:(Ⅰ) the spillover effect of the cross-border business of productive service trade and commercial presence can significantly promote the upgrade of TFP of China manufacturing, but the promotion of cross-border trade in the current to the degree of manufacturing TFP is more than 3 times as many as in the commercial presence; (Ⅱ) Two kinds of productive service trade promote TFP of China manufacturing in different ways, commercial presence promotes its TFP by promoting technology progress of the manufacturing, while cross-border trade is through promoting both technological progress and technical efficiency of manufacturing; (Ⅲ) There is hysteresis in some ways of cross-border trade and spillover effect of commercial presence on TFP and there must be certain complementarity in promoting China manufacturing pure technical efficiency and improving scale efficiency. Secondly, by researching the influence of spillover effect of productive service trade on the branch TFP in manufacturing, we can find:(Ⅰ) Productive service trade had greatly positive influence on TFP of most manufacturing industries; (Ⅱ) The influence of cross-border trade in the current to the degree of TFP of all sub sectors in manufacturing is much bigger than commercial presence; (Ⅲ) Two kinds of productive service trade are mainly using the promotion of technical progress to rise TFP of all sub sectors in manufacturing; (Ⅴ) Both of them had greatly lagged effects on promoting technological efficiency of manufacturing; (Ⅵ) Because of the difference in factor intensity, the degrees that both of them influence TFP of three sub industries on manufacturing are different. Finally, by analyzing the effect of spillover effect of productive service trade on the TFP on manufacturing, we can find:(Ⅰ) Except for transport service industry, the commercial presence of the other 4 types of productive service industry all showed a significant role in promoting TFP of China manufacturing, which the most fundamental are information services and other business services; (Ⅱ) Except for Information service, all the sub industries of cross-border trade are instrumental in raising TFP on China manufacturing and the top three are transportation, financial and technical services; (Ⅲ) In addition to information services and other business services in cross-border trade effect is less than commercial presence, the other sub industries of cross-border trade effects are much greater than the presence of the respective business.Ⅵ. This paper empirically studies 6 influence factors of spillover effect of productive service trade and finds that most of these influence factors cannot improve the spillover effect of productive service trade on TFP of manufacturing industry of China.Ⅶ. At last, according to research status of the existing problems and the empirical analysis of the results, this paper combines with the influencing factors of spillover effect and suggests that we play the spillover effect of productive service trade and promote TFP of China manufacturing.