Research On The Influencing Factors And Potential Of Agricultural Product Trade Between China And Latin American Countries

Food security has always been an important national strategy,but China has a small arable land and a large population,and the pressure of food security is huge.In recent years,China has been expanding the international trade of agricultural products,and foreign high-quality agricultural products have gradually entered the domestic consumption market,which has enriched the types of agricultural products.Latin American countries have a vast territory,most areas have sufficient heat and precipitation conditions,the soil is fertile enough for the growth of crops,Latin America’s agricultural industry is particularly developed,China and Latin American countries have a long history of agricultural trade.It is of great significance to develop agricultural trade with Latin American countries and it is necessary to study the influencing factors and potential of agricultural trade between China and Latin American countries.First of all,this paper selects 12 major countries in Latin America as research objects to analyze the current situation of agricultural trade between China and Brazil,Argentina,Mexico,Chile,Peru,Uruguay,Paraguay,Colombia,Bolivia,Venezuela,Costa Rica and Ecuador.The trade volume of agricultural products between China and Latin American countries shows an overall rising trend,and occupies an important position in the total commodity trade between China and Latin American countries,but China’s trade deficit of agricultural products is constantly expanding.China has a high concentration of agricultural trade markets with Latin American countries,mainly Brazil,Mexico,Argentina and other countries.Secondly,based on the trade data of agricultural products between China and 12 countries in Latin America from 2002 to 2021,this paper empirically analyzes the factors influencing the trade of agricultural products between China and Latin America by using the trade gravity model,and calculates the trade potential of agricultural products between the two sides on this basis.The results show that economic scale,population size of trading partner countries,liner transport connectivity index and whether to sign free trade agreement promote bilateral agricultural trade,while geographical distance,revenue inhibits bilateral agricultural trade.Thirdly,based on the analysis results of gravity model,the trade potential of 12 countries in Latin America is calculated.According to China’s agricultural export trade to Latin America,the countries with broad potential are Brazil,Chile,Argentina and Mexico,while the countries with developing potential are Peru,Uruguay,Colombia,Paraguay and Costa Rica.Bolivia,Venezuela and Ecuador are among the countries with potential for reinvention.In terms of China’s import of agricultural products from Latin America,the countries with broad potential are Bolivia,Colombia and Venezuela;the countries with developing potential are Chile,Ecuador and Costa Rica;the countries with reshaping potential are Brazil,Argentina,Peru,Uruguay,Paraguay and Mexico;In terms of the total amount of agricultural trade between China and Latin America,Bolivia,Colombia,Paraguay,Venezuela,Ecuador and Costa Rica belong to the type of vast potential,Chile belongs to the type of potential development,and Brazil,Argentina,Peru,Uruguay and Mexico belong to the type of potential reconstruction.Finally,different trade policies and measures should be formulated for different types of trade potential,including ensuring food security by diversifying import channels for agricultural products,strengthening the building of economic and trade platforms for countries with reshaped potential,enhancing the competitiveness of products from countries with developed potential,creating new trade complementarities for countries with broad potential,and promoting the interconnected construction of infrastructure and transport facilities.