Research On Agricultural Products Trade Potential Between China And Ten South American Countries

In recent years,with the accelerated development of China's economy,the increase of population year by year and the continuous upgrading of consumption levels,the domestic demand for agricultural products has upgraded from the pursuit of "quantity" to "quality" and "quantity".As Sino-US trade frictions continue to increase,China's agricultural trade direction has gradually shifted to South America,which is rich in agricultural resources.China's agricultural trade with South American countries has new development opportunities.Therefore,the current situation of agricultural products trade between China and ten major countries in South America is analyzed.Based on this,the main factors affecting bilateral trade and its development potential are analyzed to provide support for further stimulating the development space of bilateral trade.First of all,through the data of total trade volume,export volume and import volume of agricultural products between China and South American countries from 2001 to 2018,according to the research thread of "first overall,then country",and from the logical thinking of "total trade volume-import and export volume-product structure",this paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of agricultural products trade between China and 10 South American countries,i.e.the total trade volume shows an increasing trend,but the trade deficit is increasing year by year.The agricultural products structure of bilateral trade is quite different,the market concentration is high,and the distribution is unbalanced.The competitiveness of China's agricultural products is far lower than that of 10 South American countries,with strong complementarity with major countries such as Brazil and Argentina.Secondly,based on the traditional trade gravity model,combined with the latest major factors that affect bilateral trade,new variables are introduced to form an expanded trade gravity model.The model analyzes the factors that affect agricultural trade from the three aspects of total trade volume,export volume and import volume.The results show that GDP,population,liner transportation connectivity index(logistics level),whether they belong to the same economic organization or not,and other variables have significant effects on total trade volume,export volume and import volume.Therefore,policy suggestions to promote trade growth can be put forward according to the above factors.The article also estimates the total trade potential,export potential and import potential respectively.In terms of total trade,Brazil,Argentina,Peru and Uruguay are potential reshaping.Bolivia,Colombia,Venezuela,Ecuador and Paraguay are five countries with huge trade potential.In export trade,Chile,Argentina,Peru,Uruguay,Bolivia and Ecuador belong to the reshaping of trade potential,Brazil,Colombia and Paraguay are potential pioneers,and Venezuela belongs to the huge potential.In import trade,Brazil,Peru,Uruguay and Argentina belong to potential reshaping,while Bolivia,Paraguay,Venezuela and Ecuador are of great potential.Finally,based on the analysis of the current situation of agricultural products trade between China and South American countries and the significance of the influencing factors in the empirical study,according to the types of trade potential and the countermeasures and suggestions put forward by "countries" due to "product structure",countries with great potential should strengthen the construction of economic and trade platforms,countries with potential for development should enhance the competitiveness of products,develop potential to reshape the complementary points of national trade,promote infrastructure linkage and RMB internationalization,etc.