Analysis On Growth Potential Of Agricultural Products Trade Between China And South Asian Countries

The construction of "one belt and one road " is a major initiative of our country to deal with the change of the global economic situation,which brings new opportunities and challenges to the agricultural trade between China and South Asia countries.Using the data of agricultural products of China and South Asia in the year of 2001-2016,based on the analysis on the trade characteristics and trade balance,this paper makes a detailed analysis on growth conditions of agricultural products between China and South Asia.And a stochastic frontier gravity model is established to analyze the trade model of South Asian countries in China as an example.Based on analysis on the trade characteristics and trade balance,the results show that the scale of agricultural trade between China and South Asian countries is growing rapidly;and the market structure and product structure of bilateral agricultural products trade between China and South Asia are concentrated;China and South Asian countries have strong complementarity and weak competitiveness in bilateral agricultural trade;The trade model between China and South Asian countries is mainly based on the characteristics of resource endowment;and the bilateral agricultural trade between China and South Asian countries has different potential space.In the analysis of trade growth conditions,first,the “One Belt and One Road” initiative provide a favorable political environment for the agricultural trade between the two sides;second,the share of bilateral agricultural trade in the trade of agricultural products between China and South Asia continues to rise,but in South Asian countries the share is higher;the third is that the complementarity index measured by China’s exports is lower than the index measured by China’s imports,indicating that the complementarity between China’s exports and South Asian countries’ imports is stronger than that of China’s imports from South Asian countries’ exports;fourth,by measuring the similarity of exports,the degree of similarity of export products and similarity in export markets are not high,indicating that the competition between the two parties is not strong;fifth,the potential of export to South Asian countries is higher than that of import from South Asian countries.Finally,combined with the previous analysis and empirical research results,we make the full text of the summary and we put forward the corresponding countermeasures andsuggestions.Firstly,based on optimizing the market structure,consolidate the export to India,Pakistan and Sri Lanka and expand exports to Bangladesh,Nepal and Afghanistan,and avoid focusing too much on a country in India in the import market.Under the "One Belt and One Road" initiative,it will strengthen the bilateral technical cooperation with other countries by advancing the negotiation process in the free trade zone to Make the import and export market avoid over-concentration;secondly,based on optimizing the product structure,taking into account the competitiveness and complementarity of various types of agricultural products in China and South Asian countries and the different resource endowments of both parties,we conclude that China and South Asian countries are currently speaking that the main types of agricultural products that are prioritized for cooperation are textile fibers and fruits and vegetables;thirdly,based on the perspective of industrial models,China should make full use of the differences in resource endowments for the export of advantageous products in inter-industry trade and the import of inferior products,and we should strengthen brand awareness and accurately position the market in products on the intra-industry trade model;in addition,it is necessary to speed up the implementation of safeguard measures to increase the growth of agricultural trade between China and South Asian countries,ensure the trade cooperation relationship between the two sides,explore trade friction resolution mechanisms,and continuously improve trade facilitation level to better promote the healthy development of agricultural trade.