Research On The Potential Of China’s Agricultural Exports To RCEP Member Countries

In recent years,due to rising trade protectionism and unilateralism,a wave of anti-globalization has swept the world,and the COVID-19 pandemic has hit the world economy hard.In this context,countries have accelerated the free trade agreement negotiations to promote the development of regional economic integration.Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)was officially signed in November2020 and officially entered into force in January 2022.As the largest free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region and even the world,the RCEP has played a key role in the growth of the global economy and the further development of globalization.The RCEP is rich in agricultural resources and has a profound foundation for agricultural trade.The formal implementation of the RCEP agreement has had a significant impact on the agricultural trade of various countries in the RCEP region.As an important agricultural production and exporter in the world,China’s agricultural export trade is bound to be affected by the agreement.Based on this background,comprehensively and deeply understand and analyze the development of agricultural trade between China and RCEP member countries,explore the potential of China’s export trade with RCEP member countries,adjust and optimize the relevant policies of China’s agricultural trade,improve the comprehensive strength of China’s agricultural export trade,It has important theoretical value and significance to promote the high-quality development of our agricultural product export trade.This paper first reviews and summarizes the relevant research literature and results of domestic and foreign scholars on the influencing factors of agricultural trade,agricultural trade within the RCEP domain,and trade potential.On this basis,the current situation of China’s agricultural export trade to RCEP member states is analyzed around the dimensions of trade scale,product structure and market structure.The research shows that:(1)In recent years,China’s total agricultural export to RCEP member states has been increasing,and the market share of China’s agricultural products in the member states has been relatively stable.(2)From the perspective of market structure,China’s agricultural export trade to RCEP member states presents the characteristics of high market concentration and imbalance.(3)From the perspective of product structure,China’s agricultural products exported to the RCEP region are relatively concentrated,mainly food processing and fruit and vegetable agricultural products,and the structure of agricultural products exported to Japan,ASEAN and other countries needs to be improved.On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of current situation of China’s agricultural export trade to RCEP member states,this paper deeply analyzes trade potential and efficiency of China’s agricultural export to RCEP member states.In the empirical part,this paper adopts Frontier4.1 software,selects 15 years’ data from 2008 to 2022 through the World Bank,and establishes trade inefficiency model and stochastic frontier gravity model based on stochastic frontier analysis.The factors influencing the trade potential and efficiency of China’s agricultural products exported to RCEP member countries are judged,and trade potential and efficiency of China’s agricultural products exported to RCEP member countries are measured and analyzed.Based on the above research,the conclusions are as follows:(1)Although China is in an important position in the RCEP agricultural trade network,there is still a large space for development,China should increase expansion and exploration of the trade market of some RCEP countries.(2)From the perspective of trade efficiency and trade potential,the official entry into force of the RCEP agreement has a significant effect on the trade efficiency and potential of most member countries,but it is worth noting that the trade efficiency value of Japan has not reached the expected upward trend,and the trade potential has a large increase,indicating that there is still a certain space for expansion of China’s agricultural exports to Japan.In addition,the trade efficiency values of Indonesia,New Zealand,Laos and other countries have not been improved because of the signing of the RCEP agreement,and there is still a large trade potential space.Therefore,in the future,China should adopt targeted trade policies and measures,focus on the demand of agricultural products in these countries,actively expand agricultural export cooperation with these countries,and carry out detailed layout according to its own resources and production advantages,so as to further increase the scale of agricultural exports and expand market share.(3)From the perspective of subdivided agricultural products,after the RCEP agreement comes into effect,the largest export trade potential is 0,and the smallest potential is 4.Specifically,China’s Category 0 for Australia and Indonesia,Category 0 and Category 4 for Cambodia,Laos and Myanmar,Category 1 for Japan,New Zealand and Thailand,and Category 2 and Category 4 for the Philippines all show great trade potential.In the future,China can combine its own resources to carry out further trade cooperation with these countries.Finally,based on the above conclusions and combined with the relevant analysis of the current situation of agricultural export trade,this study puts forward reasonable countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the development of agricultural export trade in the RCEP domain and the high-quality development of China’s agriculture.