Study On China’s Agricultural Trade Potential To RCEP Members

Agricultural trade has always been an important trade field between China and other RCEP members.The RCEP agreement has been officially implemented,which is bound to further promote China’s agricultural trade with other RCEP members.Firstly,this thesis analyzes the current situation of China’s agricultural trade with other members of RCEP from three aspects: agricultural products export,agricultural products import and agricultural products trade environment,analyzes the scale,market distribution and agricultural products structure of agricultural products export,as well as the scale,source distribution and agricultural products structure of agricultural products import,and analyzes the agricultural products trade environment in combination with the content of RCEP agreement and the current epidemic situation.Secondly,in order to more comprehensively study the trade potential of China’s agricultural products to other members of RCEP,this thesis makes a competitive analysis by using the revealed comparative advantage index and trade competitive advantage index,and analyzes its complementarity by using the intra industry trade index and trade combination index.Finally,based on the trade gravity model,two models of export and import are constructed for empirical analysis.In the export model,the difference of GDP,the difference of agricultural land area and the bilateral free trade agreement have a positive role in promoting the export of China’s agricultural products to other RCEP members,while the difference of population and the weighted tariffs on primary products imposed by other RCEP members have a certain obstacle to China’s agricultural products export;In the import model,the ratio of GDP,the population of other RCEP members,the diplomatic relations between China and other RCEP members,and bilateral free trade agreements all play a certain role in promoting China’s import of agricultural products from other RCEP members.The results show that from the mean value,China’s agricultural products exports to ASEAN,South Korea and Australia are potential development type,Japan is potential re modeling,and the agricultural products exports to New Zealand are huge potential;China’s agricultural imports to ASEAN and Japan have great potential,to South Korea,and to Australia and New Zealand.Finally,specific suggestions are put forward according to the conclusions to further release China’s agricultural trade potential to other RCEP members.