Research On Financial Risk Of Real Estate And Its Prevention Strategy In China

With the rapid development of our economy,the real estate industry has also developed rapidly.Both the price of residential commercial housing and the price of commercial commercial housing have risen rapidly.However,since the growth rate of residents’ income is much lower than that of real estate prices,and the total household assets are mainly real estate,mortgage loan is the main source of household debt,thus increasing the default risk of mortgage loan.In addition,large banks have a high concentration of real estate credit.Once the capital chain of real estate development enterprises breaks,commercial banks will face the pressure of risk exposure.Due to the impact of the public health emergency in 2020,even in the post-epidemic era,the income level of residents and the non-performing loan ratio of the real estate industry have increased the risk of real estate finance.Real estate financial risks once exposed,have strong radiation,and will cause serious impact on the national economy,so it is particularly important to prevent real estate financial risks.After analyzing the housing price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China,it is found that Hebei Province’s urban housing price index fluctuates the most.Therefore,this thesis takes Hebei Province as the research object.This thesis firstly analyzes the concept,characteristics and transmission mechanism of real estate financial risk.Then,it analyzes the current situation of real estate finance in Hebei Province,mainly from the current situation of social and economic development in Hebei province,the supply and demand of the real estate market,the risk measurement of real estate finance,and the current situation of real estate finance risk.It finds that there are some problems in the development of real estate finance in Hebei province,such as excessive reliance on bank loans for enterprise financing,and housing price far higher than residents’ income.Mainly reflected in the real estate financial asset and liability structure risk and credit risk.Next,the empirical study of real estate financial risk in Hebei Province is carried out.VAR model is adopted to measure the risk of asset and liability structure with the asset-liability ratio and the credit risk with the non-performing loan ratio of real estate.At the same time,corresponding indicators are quantified to analyze the influencing factors of real estate finance.The results show that the asset-liability ratio of real estate enterprises is relatively high,and the inflow of capital in the real estate industry has a great impact on the asset-liability ratio of enterprises.The non-performing loan ratio of real estate credit is greatly affected by the interest rate policy and the ratio of housing price to income.Then,measures are proposed respectively from broadening the financing channels of real estate enterprises,improving the housing demand of residents,optimizing the investment environment with policy guidance,and improving the financial revenue of local governments to reduce the dependence of local governments on the real estate industry,etc.,in order to put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the prevention of financial risks in the real estate industry of Hebei Province.And explore the reference and enlightening significance to the national real estate financial risk prevention.