A Research On Real Estate Credit Risk Of Commercial Banks In China

While the economic development in many countries was in the doldrums as a result of the financial crisis in 2009, china's real estate market has staged a reversal from the bottom to the peak. The rapid development of house price became the"unique scenery"in the"cold winter"----the international financial crisis. The real estate market's prosperity has driven the development of the real estate credit. For commercial banks, however, the expansion of real estate credit actually accumulated a great risk. Once the house price falls, the audiences'credit risk will be reflected concentratedly and the risk hidden in the rapid and crazy development of the real estate credit will come to light. Thus, researching on the real estate credit risk will not only help the commercial banks prevent and control risk more effectively and ensure its sustained and sound growth, but also have important significance both in theory and practice.This thesis consists of five parts. The first part introduces the background and significance of the topic as well as systematically reviews and summarizes the research achievement on the real estate credit risk of commercial banks and puts forward the research emphasis. In this part, the breakthrough point of this research will be found by analysis. The second part is the theoretical basis of the whole thesis. It will lay a theoretical foundation for the following analysis of this thesis. The third part analyzes real estate credit risk of commercial bank in China from the macro and micro view. From macro perspective, the thesis analyzes the risks of real estate credit and relevant policy from the real estate cycle. From micro perspective, the thesis mainly analyzes the credit risk of real estate credit, including the credit risk analysis of real estate developing loan and personal housing consumption loan. The fourth part is about measures of real estate credit risk of commercial bank in China. This thesis mainly adopts the method of VAR. Take Shandong for example, this thesis makes positive analysis and stress testing of the effect caused by bad assets of real estate credit of financial institutions from the aspects of commercial housing price, national real estate indices and change of interest rate. The fifth part is about the rout choice of real estate credit risk management in commercial banks. In this part, the author puts forward some pertinent suggestions on the positive analysis of these parts, hoping to offer some help to real estate credit risk management of commercial banks in China.