Study On Real Estate Financial Risk And Countermeasures In Shihezi City Under The New Development Pattern

With the rapid development of the real estate industry,its demand for capital is increasing,and the connection between the real estate market and the financial system is deepening day by day,so real estate finance emerges at the historic moment.However,with the changes of internal and external environment,the relationship between supply and demand of real estate is gradually unbalanced,credit default events are increasing,and real estate financial risks are also initially emerging.Under the new situation,the CPC Central Committee assesses the situation and puts forward the strategic deployment of the new development pattern,which is in essence to coordinate development and security,especially to repair supply imbalance and prevent systemic financial risks.How to adjust the imbalance between supply and demand and promote the healthy development of national economy;How to maintain the basic stability of leverage ratio and guard the bottom line of no systemic financial risk has become a major issue in the new stage of real estate finance development.In view of this,under the background of the new development pattern,it is of theoretical significance and practical value to study the financial risks of real estate and then put forward preventive countermeasures to promote the high-quality development of real estate.This thesis takes Shihezi City as the research object,on the basis of the theoretical research of domestic and foreign scholars,first introduces the economic and social development,real estate development and real estate finance development of Shihezi city.Secondly,from the real estate bubble risk and commercial bank credit risk of Shihezi city real estate financial risk analysis and judgment.Then,using the single index method and linear regression model to measure the real estate financial risk of Shihezi city and empirical analysis.Finally,according to the results of measurement and empirical analysis,this thesis puts forward some suggestions from the perspective of preventing the real estate bubble risk and the credit risk of commercial banks.The main research conclusions are as follows: first,through the theoretical analysis of the real estate financial risk in Shihezi city,it is found that the real estate market in Shihezi City is facing severe internal and external environmental impact.Under the influence of housing price,market supply and demand,credit and other factors,the real estate financial risk in Shihezi city begins to appear.Secondly,the measurement results of the real estate bubble risk show that the real estate bubble level in Shihezi City was relatively high before 2015.Thirdly,the empirical analysis results of real estate credit risk show that the imperfect internal control system of commercial banks,the strict credit approval process,and the decline of residents’ ability to pay increase the possibility of real estate loan default.Based on the above research,this thesis puts forward policy suggestions from two perspectives:preventing real estate bubble risk and preventing real estate credit risk of commercial banks.To prevent the risk of real estate bubble,this thesis puts forward some suggestions,such as accelerating the liquidation of commercial housing inventory,increasing industrial support,developing real estate investment trust fund,promoting the securitization of real estate loans,and improving laws,regulations and supervision mechanism.For the prevention of real estate credit risk in commercial banks,this thesis puts forward some suggestions,such as strengthening the closed management of real estate loans,improving the credit scoring model of commercial banks and improving the comprehensive quality of customer managers.